Wheat Strategy

Weekly Wheat(C

2010 crop:

The upward trend in wheat remains intact with the trade worrying about international crop conditions.  Prices in the September contract need to penetrate resistance at $6.33 to maintain momentum.  Use current strength for catch up sales.  For producers who can store wheat, it is worth noting storage hedges are attractive this year.

2011 crop:

New-crop sales total 25 percent.  Use current strength to make catch up sales.  We recommend making an additional 10 percent sale if Chicago July 2011 would penetrate $6.98.

Fundamentals:

Drought continues to grip the Black Sea Region.  As a result, the International Grains Council forecasted Russian wheat exports in 2010/2011 could drop to 15.3 million tonnes, which has the potential to shift some export demand over to the United States.  Also, supportive were weekly exports sales coming in strong at 919,900 metric tons vs. trade expectations for 300,000-400,000 metric tons.