Soybean Strategy

Weekly Soybeans(C

2009 crop:

We are starting to see old-crop basis levels weaken, indicating the premium old-crop prices have over new-crop ones is coming to an end.  Wrap-up sales now.

2010 crop:

If soybeans can maintain momentum and penetrate $10.00 in the November contract, it would open the door for prices to test the $10.50 region.  If November futures fall though $9.60, boost new-crop sales to 60 percent.  Check the Cash Strategist Hotline occasionally to see if we change that trigger price.

Fundamentals:

Weather and its impact on the size of our crop will be the primary market driver the next few weeks.  However, crop condition ratings have started to level off.  Generally speaking, weather conditions have been non-threatening, but the Delta region is expected to heat up over the next 7 to 10 days and has some concerned about the fate of the soybean crop.  In addition, export demand remains strong, as was reflected in weekly export sales coming in at 1,483,300 metric tons vs. trade expectations of 900,000 to 1,050,000 metric tons.