Thursday, July 30, 2015 AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, July 30, 2015

***** Corn rests 3 to 3 1/2 cents higher at the break; soybeans up 9 to 11; Chicago wheat higher by 3 3/4 to 5 3/4. *****

   Grains trade moderately higher for most of the overnight session: Analysts attributed the slight strength to a technical rebound. Traders were waiting to see export sales data before getting too involved into today's session.

   Soy/corn spread showing big swingsThis year's highest multiple for new-crop soybeans over corn was 2.57, made on June 22nd. The ratio came down sharply from there and bottomed in the early part of July before moving higher again. It now stands just under 2.5. There is still an intense debate over the acres mix that contributes to the spread volatility.

   Traders looking for the August crop report to answer acres questionsUSDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will resurvey soybean acres in Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri after wet weather delayed timely planting. Previous forecasts for the above states are 3.26, 3.65, and 5.7 million acres, respectively.

   Wet weather not a concern for early August, may return for harvest: The two-week outlook has light scattered showers possible for much of the Corn Belt, but rain is not currently expected to become overly abundant anytime soon. The problem of excess moisture could return as U.S. producers step into the field for harvest if El Nino has anything to say about it. 

   Outside markets rather quiet, for now: Heavy selling pressure at the end of the session pulled the as-of-recently closely-watched Shanghai Composite down by 2 percent on Thursday. U.S. equity markets are shrugging the Chinese worries off for now as they wait for key economic reports to be released. Second quarter GDP and jobless claims data could make some noise when they are released this morning. Analysts expect that the economy grew by an annualized 2.7 percent. Jobless claims are seen rising to 270,000 for the week. 


***** Livestock futures look to open steady/higher with guidance from improved cash market expectations. *****

   Traders have the idea that wholesale beef prices have room to improve now that they are valued at less than 90 percent of last year's levels. Futures can move higher if stronger wholesale prices allow the packers to raise their bids into the end of the week.
   More spreading likely to be featured for the hogs as traders price in strong spot demand against expectations for growing supplies. Slaughters are high but weights are light.