July 31, 2015 - AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, July 31, 2015
***** Corn futures higher by 2 1/4 cents ahead of the break; soybeans up 1 1/2 to down 1 1/2; Chicago wheat gaining 3 1/2 to 5 3/4. *****
   Grains trade quietly mixed overnight: Corn and soybeans both trade within a four cent range as wheat highs and lows are within eight. The Sep corn contract is working on technical resistance from Wednesday's high as soybeans trade up against their 100-day moving average. 
   Midwest grain basis improving: The recent price cut has slowed farmer selling and buyers are bidding up as a result. Improved export demand is also helping out. Soybean spreads have been firming as a sign of some difficulty for buyers to source near-term needs. 
   Funds were small net-buyers on Thursday: Managed money has trimmed length from its net-long grain position up to this point, but could reverse course into the end of the week. It will be important to see just how bullish funds remain ahead of the important August crop report.
   Weekend weather mostly benign for crops: The forecast has August starting out cooler than normal. Scattered showers will be welcomed by growers across the Corn Belt. A wetter 6-10 day outlook fades into a drier 8-14 day.
   European wheat harvest faring better than expected: Many growers are pleasantly surprised with yields as dry, hot weather persists throughout much of the continent. The same conditions have been more detrimental for the European corn crop.
   July dollar strength helps weigh on commodities: Broad commodity indices are down as much as 10 percent on the month, led lower by tumbling oil and gold prices. The dollar was supported by data this week that further bolstered the idea of a September interest rate hike. 
***** Hogs look to open steady/higher; cattle futures likely to trade quietly firmer ahead of cash market activity. *****
   Cattle futures are still waiting for guidance from the cash markets, which should develop today. Strength in wholesale prices this week may allow packers to up their bids from the currently-posted $143-$144. 
   There was some light liquidation in the hogs on Thursday as futures bumped up against technical resistance. Strong demand is working against expectations for growing supplies.