August 6, 2015 AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, August 06, 2015
***** Corn futures fractionally higher at the break; soybeans dip moderately lower; Chicago wheat up 4 to 6 1/4. *****

   Export sales to be digested early on in the session: A small net reduction was made to the 2014/15 corn book, disappointing when almost 14 million bushels were expected. At 10.9 million bushels, new-crop sales also missed trade guesses. 16.4 million bushels of soybean sales were cancelled or switched from 2014/15 into the 37.5 million bushels of sales tallied for 2015/16. 
   Analysts look for lowered USDA yield estimates next week: The Bloomberg survey came up with an average corn yield guess of 164.7 bushels per acre, down from the USDA's current 166.8. Soybean yield is expected to drop from 46 to 44.8.
   Trade very uncertain over potential acres changes: Pre-report estimates range from 80.2 to 81.6 for harvested corn acreage, leaving the average close to 81 million acres and down a touch from the USDA's 81.1. The range is wider for soybeans, from 82.7 to 84.5 million acres, with the USDA at 84.4. 
   World ending stocks likely to come down for the row crops: Analysts see carryout projections for 2015/16 dropping on the August 12 report. A shrinking U.S. crop is likely to play a role in declining estimates, as is a likely lower forecast for European production. 
   Corn makes new high for the week: It has been a tightly-ranged trade for corn prices this week, as futures consolidate after the July tumble. The bulls will look to build enough momentum to allow for a move toward the 50- and 100-day moving averages, which still hover near the gap opened two Mondays ago. The overnight range for November soybeans straddles resistance from the 100-day. 
   U.S. stock futures trade quietly overnight: There are some private equity deals being talked about and a few important earnings report scheduled for today, but news is otherwise limited. Traders await more clues on a possible September federal funds rate hike. 

***** Cattle futures look to open firmer; hogs steady/stronger as futures face a test of technical resistance. *****

   October live cattle recaptured the 20-day moving average on Wednesday and looks to build on technical momentum into the end of the week. On the fundamental side, demand is expected to hold up well as summer wraps up. Packers have their early bids in line with last week's cash trade.
   Hog futures continue to trend higher but are a touch overbought in the very near-term. Margins are still good enough to allow cash values to improve in to the weekend with the board likely to follow.