Thursday, August 6, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Thursday, August 06, 2015
***** Corn slides into the close to finish 3 cents weaker; soybeans lose 6 1/4 to 10 1/4; Chicago wheat higher by 4 to 5. *****

    Corn and soybeans ended lower on a light-volume day. Wheat finished higher. Prices went in the direction of respective export tallies; sales were low for corn and soybeans, somewhat strong for wheat. Outside markets did not help any, with commodity indices moderately weaker and U.S. equities down. 
   A small net reduction was made to the old-crop corn sales book. Traders had expected to see a positive 14 million bushels. Sales for 2015/16 were also low for corn. Soybean sales were significant for the new-crop, but that was because of a 16.4 million bushel reduction to the old-crop tally. Cumulative sales for 2015/16 run just over half of where they were a year ago with soybean sales at about 60 percent of last year's total. 
   Demand worries have weighed on prices recently, but trading next week should be primarily a supply-side game. The August 12 crop report is expected to feature acres and yield changes that may require significant adjustments to carryout figures. Closely-watched surveys from Bloomberg and Reuters have analysts looking for production estimates to fall from the USDA's try in July. 
   Nothing really new on the technical front to report. Corn futures are consolidating after the board gapped lower two Mondays ago. There has been some slightly bullish divergence to watch after momentum bottomed without taking prices to new lows. November soybeans were turned away from resistance at the 100-day moving average but did not breach the Wednesday low. 
   U.S. stock markets were lower as the bulls worry about the impact of a potential September interest rate hike. Initial jobless claims were close to expectations at 270,000 in August. A strong unemployment report, due out tomorrow, could seal the deal for higher interest rates in 2015. Disappointing earnings from the media sector did not help stocks any. 

***** Hogs drop $1.825 to $2.30; live cattle finish higher by $0.25 to $1.225 as feeders improve $0.50 to $0.75. *****

    Hog futures were hammered on Thursday as cash prices plummeted. The morning USDA report had direct hogs lower by more than $3 in the Western Corn Belt. The October contract still holds above the bottom of an ascending channel on the charts. 
   Cattle futures were moderately firmer on the day without much guidance from a quiet cash market. Bulls have the idea that negotiated deals will be done at improved prices this week. Live cattle futures are gaining technical momentum on the recent turn up.