August 10, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, August 10, 2015
***** Corn futures climb 16 3/4 to 17 1/2 cents; soybeans up 31 1/4 to 35 3/4; Chicago wheat settles higher by 13 3/4 to 15 and widens its premium over Kansas City. *****

   The bulls took a successful run at overhead stops on Monday as they noted a threatening two-week weather forecast and friendly supply adjustments expected for Wednesday's crop report. Fund traders were large participants in the rally after having cut back on their longs last week. 
   Corn futures failed to completely close the down gap opened two Monday's ago. The most-active December contract was able to fill the gap by reaching $4.02, but the nearby September came 1/2 cent short of the $3.92 mark that would have closed that contract's gap. Futures made a strong close above their 50- and 100-day moving averages but have overhead resistance from the 20-day. 
   Analysts look for corn and soybean condition ratings to deteriorate on the Monday afternoon Crop Progress report. The consensus sees good and excellent ratings dropping by one point for each crop, to 69 percent for corn and 62 percent for soybeans. Drier weather likely pressured conditions slightly, as could higher maturity rates. 
   The weather forecasts have turned slightly bullish for the grains. Wide rain coverage was enjoyed in the Western Corn Belt over the weekend and scattered showers could fall over the Midwest tonight. But, traders are talking about chances for hotter, drier weather into the end of August. 
   Outside markets provided a tailwind for the grains on Monday. Stocks were rallying on strong Chinese stock market performance and some merger and acquisition talk. Commodities were broadly higher as the grain strength was complemented by higher energies and metals. 

***** Hogs drop $0.525 to $1.15; live cattle settle higher by $0.40 to $0.725 as feeders gain fractionally. *****

   Live cattle futures were playing some additional catchup with the cash market, which improved $2 to $3 late last week. Boxed beef prices were gaining to start the new week. The technical picture is pointing up for futures with a test of resistance just overhead from the 50- and 100-day moving averages. 
   Hog futures took it on the chin as the board took direction from a weaker cash trade. The carcass cutout had dropped $0.82 on Monday morning and weighed on the direct market. Futures have broken under the channel bottom that had guided prices for the past month.