Tuesday, August 11, 2015 AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Tuesday, August 11, 2015
***** Corn futures 6 to 7 cents lower ahead of the break; soybeans off 14 to 16; Chicago wheat down 6 to 8. *****

  Grains giving back some overnight: Futures have lost about half of what they earned on Monday's rally. The bulls take a breather as crop condition numbers come in better than expected and outside market influence leans negative.
   Crop Progress report shows steady condition ratings: Traders had expected to see the good and excellent ratings decline for corn and soybeans by at least a percentage point. Instead, the corn crop held at 70 percent good or excellent and the soybeans stayed on 63 percent.
   Drier weather expected to prevail through the month: The forecasts assign greater chances to a dry rest of August and also lean hotter than average. The first two weeks of the month were relatively wetter for the Western Corn Belt and drier in the East. 
   Monday's highs become key technical resistance: December corn futures are turning lower from a converging pair of 20- and 50-day moving averages. The December contract closed its gap on Monday but the nearby September did not. November soybeans opened with a gap up this week that the bears will attempt to fill quickly. 
   Outside market support fades on Tuesday: Monday's grain rally was aided by friendly outside markets, with stocks up big and strength had by metals and the energies. China has devalued the yuan currency and is causing some skittishness for global markets. 

***** Hogs look to open steady to lower; live cattle futures have room to gain. *****

   Live cattle futures are sustaining recent strength on the idea that cash prices will continue to improve from this seasonal low. Beef's high price relative to other meats will remain a headwind. The technical picture is beginning to lean friendly.
   Sentiment is turning bearish for hogs as traders talk burdensome supply growth. Demand remains robust and supports strength in cash and wholesale prices. That cash strength provides some support to a discounted futures board.