August 17, 2015 AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, August 17, 2015
***** Corn futures up 2 1/2 to 3 cents ahead of the break; soybeans higher by 4 1/4; Chicago wheat down 1 cent overnight. *****

   Weather still leaning favorable for U.S. row crops: Rainfall was lighter than expected this weekend across the Corn Belt. Indiana and northeastern Ohio enjoyed some good coverage on Saturday. The forecast still calls for rain this week. 
   Traders looking for crop condition ratings to fall: The weekly Crop Progress report will be released after the bell today. The consensus calls for combined 'good' or 'excellent' ratings to drop one point from the current 70 percent for corn and 63 percent for soybeans.
   NOPA crush report scheduled for today: 141.5 million bushels is the estimates for soybean crush in July. If realized, that figure would be down from last month's 142.5 million bushels, which was a record for the month of June. 
   Crop tours in full swing this week: Several crop tours will be conducted around the Midwest this week, including the closely-watched Pro Farmer tour. Private organizations will also be collecting survey data from producers to estimate yields. 
   Oil falling further with outside markets calm overnight: WTI crude futures are off another 1.5 percent as the production outlook remains bearish. U.S. stock index futures are quietly lower as traders deal with the fallout from China's currency devaluation. European markets will lend some guidance this week as Greek lawmakers work to ratify various policies related to the bailout. 

***** Live cattle futures face technical selling at the open; hogs likely to start on the defensive this week as cash expectations weigh on the market. *****

   Beef demand is proving solid but the outlook for supply remains a headwind. Liquidation was a feature of last week's futures trade after the rally that started in late July lost steam. 
   Hog futures are in a precarious position this week after expiration of the August contract leaves the October with a steep discount to the cash market. Cash prices held up last week against expectations for a weaker market. Traders still largely expect the cash market to do most of the work on convergence.