Tuesday, August 18, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

***** The grain market closed mixed on Tuesday.  Corn futures were higher, with gains of 1/4 to 3 cents.  Wheat futures were 5 3/4 to 7 cents lower and soybeans 10 1/4 to 13 3/4 lower.

     Corn futures held support after USDA lowered its good-to-excellent rating from 70% to 69% late Monday.  Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour reported results of the tour produced corn yields of 148.4 bushels an acre in Ohio, making the tour yield nearly 20 bushels below USDA’s August estimate and gives hope that USDA’s August numbers may be too high.

     Rain throughout the Midwest weighed on soybeans prices on expectations that the moisture will be helpful to pod-filling soybeans. Pro Farmer’s crop tour showed pod counts in Ohio at 1,125; down from 1,342 last year, early evidence of this year’s rain damage.  Soybeans remain under pressure with many concerned about the size of this year’s U.S. crop and bearish headlines out of China.

     Wheat futures closed lower after USDA report spring wheat harvest 53% complete, well ahead of its five-year average pace of 31%.  In spite of expectations for lower wheat production in Canada, Europe and India this year, USDA is estimating a slight increase for total world production, estimating world ending stocks at a 31% of annual use.

     Weather forecast for the next 3-5 days look dry except for developing showers through far southwest areas on Friday, a few showers and thunderstorms across the west and mostly dry east Saturday and Sunday. 

***** The meat pits were mixed in a narrow range on Tuesday.  Live cattle finished .75 lower to .45 higher.  Lean hogs were .15 lower to .125 higher.

     The front three contracts in the live cattle trade were lower, further deferred contracts were just slightly higher.  The ability of the deferred contracts to hold onto even slight gains shows long-term support, but buyers were not ready to come back into the complex in early-week trade. 

     Lean hog futures had a choppy day of trade with buyer interest lacking, but firming pork values on the morning cutout report provided some stability.