8/19/15 Corn Yield estimates from ProFarmer crop tour below USDA in Indiana and Nebraska

Wednesday, August 19, 2015
  • Corn and wheat mostly slightly higher, soybeans continue downtrend.
  • ProFarmer's Crop Tour yield estimates for Indiana 142.9; Nebraska 165.2, below USDA estimates of 158 and 187, respectively.
  • Soybean pod count estimates from ProFarmer's tour show Indiana 1,093 in a 3-ft by 3-ft square, down 10% from last year; Nebraska 1,220, highest so far and 11% above last year.
  • Live and Feeder cattle futures sharply lower on chart-based pressure, lean hogs modestly lower on spillover weakness.

Live and Feeder cattle futures sharply lower on chart-based pressure, lean hogs modestly lower on spillover weakness.***** Corn and wheat futures closed mixed, soybeans continue lower.  Corn finished with the Sep 2015 to July 2016 contracts 3/4 to 1 1/4 higher; further deferred contract were 3/4 to 1 1/2 lower.  Wheat futures Sep 2015 to March 2016 contracts were 1/4 to 2 higher; further deferred contracts were 1/2 to 2 3/4 lower.  Soybeans futures were 6 1/4 to 11 1/4 lower.

     Corn futures 2015-16 new-crop contracts were slightly higher on news from ProFarmer’s Midwest Crop Tour that indicated that their estimates of corn yields in Indiana and Nebraska are below USDA estimates.  Tour officials have noted that three out of four states toured thus far have come in lower than USDA estimates.  Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota are remaining on the tour schedule.  Ethanol’s higher-than-expected production pace continues to be a source of support for corn prices in 2015 and is expected to continue, but falling energy prices are a bearish threat.

     Soybean futures were weighed down by continued concerns about the size of this year’s U.S. crop, especially after receiving favorable rain at pod-filling time.  The one consistent bullish support for soybeans in 2015 has come from the demand side which remains active, but now that is even questionable by the concern over China.

     Wheat futures front contracts closed slightly higher, with spillover strength from the front corn contracts.  But in light of this year’s spring wheat harvest and outlook for plentiful world supplies, potential buyers are in no hurry and prices remain under bearish pressure.   

***** The meat pits were lower on Wednesday.  Live cattle futures were sharply lower, with losses of 1.30 to 2.475.  Lean hog futures were .10 to .40 lower.

     Live cattle futures were lower on chart-based pressure, with the October contract breaking through short-term resistance levels.  The expectation for the cash markets to rally back through late August has weakened along with the cash cattle trade.

    Lean hog futures were slightly lower, faring better than cattle markets.  But with the sharp losses in the cattle market, lean hog traders were cautious about stepping into the market and buying with such dismal surroundings.