Tuesday, September 1, 2015 AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

***** Corn down 4 cents at the break; soybean futures off 8 to 9; Chicago wheat rests up 2 to 3 3/4. *****

   Grains holding up reasonably well against outside market volatility: Corn and soybean futures have spent the entire overnight session trading lower, but losses are not as great as could be expected given the risk-off attitude that has returned to global financial markets. The Chinese government intervened once again to spark a late session equity rally in Shanghai, but there is enough worry over the country's economic health to weigh on European stocks and setup the U.S. market for a sharply lower open. 
   Soybean condition ratings do not fall as expected: The Crop Progress report left the soybean ratings unchanged at 63 percent good or excellent. Ratings for the corn crop declined one point to 68 percent good or excellent. The corn crop maturity pace is 9 percent against 7 a year ago and 15 percent for the five-year average. 
   Two-week forecasts turn wetter for the Corn Belt: Chances are low for rain in the Eastern Corn Belt through the rest of the week, but they are expected to increase during the latter part of the 8-14 day outlook. 
   Risk-off sentiment spreads to the oil market: The global economy worries are giving pause to the oil rally that kicked off last week. Technical buying helped propel crude higher on Monday, but WTI futures face charts resistance from their 50-day moving average and are slightly overbought from a near-term perspective. 

***** Hog futures start fractionally firmer on Tuesday; cattle futures selling off at the open. *****

   Expectations for seasonal beef demand weakness seem to finally be coming in to fruition. Wholesale prices have remained stubbornly high until now, but look poised to slip in a manner that will weigh on the cattle futures board.
   Pork demand remains strong and continues to enjoy a boost from favorable pricing relative to beef. Hog numbers should plateau briefly in September to work with inventory purchases ahead of October's National Pork Month to help futures prices move higher.