Friday, September 4, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Friday, September 04, 2015

***** Corn finished 1-2 higher; soybeans finished 3-4 lower, with Chi. wheat 1-3 higher. *****


  •    Much of the focus at week’s end turned to expectations for next week’s USDA production report.  Look for trade expectations to be released Monday/Tuesday.
  •    Informa expects the USDA to forecast a 168.8 bu. yield next week, with a 13.688 bln. bu. crop, both close to USDA’s August numbers.  They expect the USDA to project a 47 bu. soybean yield, producing a 3.924 bln. bu. crop.  It’s said, they expect the final crop size to be slightly, but not significantly, smaller.  FC Stone’s numbers earlier in the week weren’t as large, but they were larger than their August forecasts.
  •    Historically, when the USDA starts near a historically high yield in August for corn and soybeans, they tend to remain large in Sept., although we could see the corn yield drop slightly(1-2 bu.), with the soybean yield possibly rise (0.1-0.2 bu.)
  •    U.S. remains uncompetitive in the world wheat trade, with current prices said to be $20-$25 over other origins.  Even France didn’t capture any Egyptian business this week with a competitive bid.  And Russia is said to be selling wheat a little more aggressively again.  French production expectations were revised up, as were scattered expectations for Russia’s crop.
  •    U.S. soybean export interest has picked up, but buyers need to get purchases on the books to get their logistics lined up.  Activity has been somewhat strong in Sept. the last 2-3 years.  Corn interest remains slow, with buyers still focused on Brazil and the Black Sea.
  •    South American analysts are generally looking for Brazilian soybean plantings to rise 2-3%.  There’s talk of some shift from corn to soy in Argentina because of input costs.
  •    Outside markets are having some impact.  Today’s August job numbers were a little less than expected, but the June and July numbers were revised up.  Equity markets still end the week lower.  The Dollar was 2-sided.  Crude oil ended weak Friday; down for the week, but in the middle of the week’s range.

***** Lean hog futures ended $0.25 to $0.65 lower; live cattle futures were $0.77-$1.07 lower; feeders ended $1.40-$1.70 lower.  *****


  •    Weak beef demand/prices continues to weigh on live cattle bids, along with the short slaughter week ahead.  Cash was still trading as low as $140 Friday.
  •    Wholesale pork hold firm, offering some support to hog prices, but the short slaughter week undermined packer buying interest and cash hog prices.
  •    July exports were a bit of a drag for both meats.