Friday, September 4, 2015 AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 04, 2015
***** Corn is fractionally firmer at the break; soybean futures up 3 to 5 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat higher by 2 1/4 to 2 3/4. *****

   Grains trade steady to firmer in a quiet overnight session: Volumes are very light as corn trades a two to three cent range. Soybeans are near the upper end of a seven cent range while highs and lows are within six cents of each other for Chicago wheat. 
   Pre-harvest trading lull seems to have set in: Trading volumes are not terribly large as hedge activity quiets before the row crop harvest begins to ramp up. Volatility is still in and out of the mix because of fast-changing developments in outside markets.
   Informa numbers still likely to help drag on the market: The closely-watched analysts at Informa are not looking for the USDA to change much on next Friday's Supply and Demand update, having yesterday matched their corn yield estimate to the USDA's 168.8 bushels per acre and brought the soybean yield up to 47. More analysts' estimates will be reported today and early next week. 
   Bearish export outlook continues to hang over the grains: Thursday's large soybean sale, nearly one million metric tons, initially elicited a bullish reaction, but a lagging cumulative total limits enthusiasm. The new-crop sales pace is slow for both soybeans and corn. A very strong end to the 2014/15 marketing year for exports mutes some of the negativity. 
   Weather forecast turns wetter after the weekend: The outlook assigns small chances to precipitation in the Corn Belt this weekend, but those chances increase beyond Sunday. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are wetter than normal, which could get in the way of the early corn harvest. 
   Stocks and bonds markets attempting to price in August unemployment numbers: Payrolls increased by 173,000 to record a 59th straight month of gains, but missed expectations that had the tally at 220,000. Upward revisions to the previous months' payroll counts helped the unemployment rate fall by more than expected, from 5.3 to 5.1 percent. 

***** Hogs open with a test of technical resistance from Wednesday's high; live cattle look to start steady/higher ahead of a more fully developed cash trade. *****

   Cattle futures wait to take direction from the cash trade, which has not fully developed yet this week. Packers may be cautious buyers until they have a feel about how holiday demand will turn out. 
   Hogs still enjoy bullish technical momentum, but futures are taking a breather now that they are overbought in the short-run. The board is still discounted to the cash market and the cash market has support from seasonal expectations, generally allowing some room for futures prices to improve through the month.