Monday, September 14, 2015 Agrivisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, September 14, 2015
********** Corn futures closed 4-6 cents higher; soybeans ended mostly 10 higher, with wheat finishing 12-16 higher. ***** 

   # Most of Monday’s gains were based on follow-through buying from Friday, but wheat surged with movement through moving averages appearing to trigger short covering from the hedge funds.  

   # Persistent talk of yields coming in a little under expectation is reinforcing the notion the corn yield could slip further on future reports.  Traders don’t have as universal of a feeling for soybean yields with too few fields having been harvested to get a sense of potential yield.

   # Today’s export inspections were a small plus for soybeans, 13.6 mln. bu., neutral for wheat 23.8 mln. bu., and a little negative for corn, 28.0 mln. bu.    

   # The weekly crop ratings for corn were left unchanged for corn, 68% good/excellent, but dropped 2 points for soybeans, 61% good/excellent.  Corn harvest is 5% done, ahead of last year, but behind normal.  Crop maturity is ahead of last year, but behind normal, except east of the Mississippi river where it’s ahead.  Soybean maturity is ahead of last year and normal.  Winter wheat planting is 9% complete.        

   # NOPA will release the August soybean crush Tuesday; the trade is looking for 135.0 mln. bu.  

   # FSA will release their latest acreage update tomorrow.  The trade will scrutinize it to gauge potential changes on the Oct. USDA crop report.   

   # The most notable feature on the weather front was a weekend freeze in southern Brazil which caused some damage to their wheat crop, potentially increasing imports later this year. There are no signs of potential weather problems for the U.S. Midwest, neither a strong cold front and frost threat, or excessive rains and harvest delays.  

   # Financial and forex markets are mostly focused on this week’s Fed Reserve meeting to see if they raise rates as they have widely telegraphed they plan to do.  But late in the day forex traders started to believe the Fed would leave rates unchanged given some of the economic problems that have surface in the world, China in particular, the last few weeks.

********** Lean hogs futures closed $0.50 lower to $.32 higher; live cattle ended $.35 to $.87 higher, with feeders $.55 lower to $.27 higher.  ****

   # Beef demand remains the focal point of the cattle trade.  Any sign of improvement would diminish the current negative environment.  Feedlot showlists are smaller this week.

   # Pork prices are holding steady with the trade looking for business to increase as retailers cover needs for National Pork Month in October.  The return to a full slaughter week is expected to bolster cash hog prices.