Monday, September 14, 2015 AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Monday, September 14, 2015
***** Corn futures ahead by a penny at the break; soybeans up 6 3/4 cents across the curve; Chicago wheat higher by 2 3/4 to 3 1/4. *****

   Harvest weather outlook, outside markets to guide grains this week: It was mostly a dry weekend across the Corn Belt. Chances for rain pick up later in the 6-10 day outlook. Expected volatility in international equity and debt markets is likely influence trading throughout the broad commodity space and will affect the grains along with weather. 
   September WASDE shifts sentiment over corn: Traders are beginning to factor in shrinking grain stocks after the government cut its corn yield estimate on Friday. Most analysts suggest that a further trimming to output will be made in October.
   September 30 Grain Stocks report now looms: The quarterly inventory update will be an important gauge of consumption pace, coming just ahead of the time when demand starts to take center focus. 
   Global wheat stocks seen swelling by even more than expected: USDA raised the global carryout estimate by 5 million metric tons and still assigns big crop numbers to the major export competitors. 
   El Nino projected to influence world weather patterns well into 2016: The Climate Prediction Center gives it a 95 percent change that El Nino will last through the upcoming winter. The phenomenon could provide a warmer, wetter winter for the U.S. while it has the tendency to keep South America dry. 
   Federal Reserve meeting takes place this week: The central bank will decide whether or not to raise the economy's lending rates. Equities have been selling off in recent weeks as traders price in the anticipated 0.25 basis point increase. 

***** Hogs look to correct a six-day losing streak; cattle futures likely to start firmer in an effort to keep chart support. *****

   Unexpected cash market weakness last week leaves cattle on the defensive: Negotiated prices dropped $3-$5 in deals done late on Friday. Expectations for a growing weekly slaughter will help weigh on futures.
   Quicker hog slaughter pace to compete with robust pork demand this week: The intermediate- to long-term supply outlook remains a headwind for the hog market, but the current strength of retail demand lends support to prices. The charts are leaning less bullish after failed tests of technical resistance last week.