Tuesday, September 15, 2015 Agrivisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, September 15, 2015
********** Corn futures closed 2-3 lower; soybeans ended 4-5 higher, with wheat finishing 6-7 lower. ***** 

# The grain trade is mostly waiting on the FSA acreage update that typically is released in the late overnight/early morning hours.  The trade will use them to guide ideas about possible NASS acreage adjustments on the October report.  Their August prevent plant numbers, 6.5 mln. were higher than expected when they were released.
# NOPA’s August soybean crush report was 135.3 mln. bu., about what the trade anticipated.  The trade will use those, and the latest export data to develop expectations for the September 30 stocks report.  Corn and wheat stocks come as well.
# There was talk today that Chinese buyers are shopping for soybeans.  With their Premier due here at month’s end, expect to see some big purchases announced while he is here.  That is a pattern that has developed whenever a key official or a buying mission is in our country.
# This year’s faster development of corn and soybeans is not going un-noticed, but the trade is having some difficulty putting them in perspective.  Basically they allude to a shorter seed/kernel filling period than last year’s crops had.        
# Weather remains an ingredient, but it continues to look mostly good for harvest.  The 6-10 day outlook was warm, with a band of moisture across the southern Corn Belt and Southern Plains.  The 8-14 day showed more moisture in the far western Corn Belt and Great Plains.  Concern about Brazil’s weekend freeze moderated overnight.
# The trade continues to grapple with the uncertain picture in Russia; when, how much they are going to lower their wheat export tax, and how much they will raise their intervention stocks purchase price.  There’s a story suggesting government officials have forced producers to elevate their production numbers to make officials look good.  There’s growing belief the crop is somewhat smaller than official forecasts, albeit still a good crop.
# Black Sea, EU, and South American FOB port values have not followed this week’s CBOT strength, keeping U.S. grain priced higher than our competitors.  Still, this week’s rally has moderated pessimism somewhat.  
# Financial and forex markets are focused on this week’s Fed Reserve meeting to see if they raise rates as they have widely telegraphed they plan to do.  There are still analysts on both sides of the argument, but most think the economic data favors them raising rates. An announcement will come at the end of their meeting Thursday.

********** Lean hogs futures closed $0.82-$2.55 higher; live cattle ended $.72-$1.00 lower, with feeders $1.57-$2.25 lower.  ***** 

# Beef demand remains soft, with wholesale slipping lower.  Cattle futures ended just over support.  If it fails, there could be a short term cascade lower, cash prices included.
# Option activity was said to key the strength in hog futures, but the stronger cash market played a part as well.  Many expect pork/hog prices to work higher into October.