Wednesday, September 16, 2015 Agrivisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 16, 2015
********** Corn futures closed 4-5 lower; soybeans ended steady-1 lower, with wheat finishing 6-7 lower. ***** 

# There was a lot of volatility early in the session brought on by an FSA release of incorrect data, driving futures down in the late overnight session.  Values recovered some with the release of the correct data mid-morning.  
# 184,000 tons of soybeans sold to China were reported on the daily system.  Talk is circulating the trade they will buy millions of tons when the Premier is here at month’s end.  They were even fixing some business out of Argentina for next summer.
# Wheat, and to a lesser degree corn, traders continue to talk about the softness in FOB offers out of the Black Sea, EU, and South America(corn).  
# Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to total: 900,000-1,300,000 tons of soybeans, 100-180,000 tons of soymeal, 400-600,000 tons of corn, and 275-450,000 tons of wheat.
# The weekly ethanol data showed the daily output was up slightly this week, 961,000 barrels/day.  Ethanol stocks declined slightly.  Crude oil inventories dropped 2.1 mln. barrels this week, more than anticipated, stirring up a rally in crude prices.
# Weather remains an ingredient, but it continues to look mostly good for harvest.  Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks were mostly warm, and dry for the Midwest.  The longer term one showed a wetter pattern in the Northern Plains. 
# Financial and forex markets are focused on this week’s Fed Reserve meeting to see if they raise rates as they have widely telegraphed they plan to do.  There are still analysts on both sides of the argument, but most think the economic data favors seeing them raising rates. An announcement will come at the end of their meeting Thursday.

********** Lean hogs futures closed $1.12-$1.77 lower; live cattle ended $2.50-$3.00 lower, with feeders $3.82-$4.30 lower.  ***** 

# Beef demand concern continues to be the key ingredient weighing on cattle, although the emotional aspects appear more important at the moment than fundamental ones.  Cattle futures fell under support, setting off what should be a short term cascade lower, cash prices included. Remember, livestock markets are known for V-bottoms.
# Lean hog futures were drug lower by the collapse in cattle futures.  Both cash hog and wholesale pork prices held well through the day.  Many expect pork/hog prices to work higher into October.