Thursday, September 17, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Thursday, September 17, 2015
********** Corn futures closed 6 lower; soybeans ended 1-2 lower, with wheat finishing 6-7 lower. ***** 

# Export sales were the biggest grain news.  The soybean sales, 912,000 tons were good, but at the low end of the range.  The corn sales, 533,000 tons, were mid-range.  Wheat sales, 377,500 tons for the current year, were in the mix, with new crop sales added in, where slightly higher than expected.  Soymeal sales, 198,500 tons, were slightly better than expected. In addition, on the daily system, the USDA reported 298,000 tons were sold to China.
# There’s still talk of big business being done heading into the Premier’s visit is here at month’s end, with millions of tons being committed.  A Chinese grain company analyst is talking of soybean imports falling slightly this year.  And Ddgs imports are expected to weaken as well.
# The ongoing slow pace of exports remains a drag on wheat.  Egypt did issue a tender to be filled tonight, but it will be shocking if anyone other than Black Sea countries get any business.  Results come in the morning.
# Weather forecasts remain good, paving the way for a relatively quick harvest.  The progress numbers indicate the crop is ahead of last year.  Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks were mostly warm, and dry for the Midwest.  The longer term one showed a wetter pattern in the Northern Plains. 
# Stats Canada hinted their hard red winter crop estimate might be revised up slightly, along with their Canola forecast because of weather.  A key European analysts downgraded their expectation for the EU corn crop, but raised the barley and wheat estimates slightly.
# There’s also some talk that China may boost ethanol imports in the months ahead mostly because the high govt. support price for corn is disrupting domestic production.
# The Federal Reserve surprised the trade by not raising their interest rates today.  The Dollar immediately broke 1 point, with stocks initially rallying, only to end the day lower.  They still left the door open to a possible rate increase in October. 

********** Lean hogs futures closed $.75-$1.80 higher; live cattle ended $.50 lower-$.45 higher, with feeders $.15-$.50 lower.  *****
# Beef demand concern continue to weigh on cattle, although the emotional aspects appear more important at the moment than fundamental ones.  Cattle futures fell under supports this week, keeping the short term trend pointed down, cash prices included. Remember, livestock markets are known for V-bottoms.
# Lean hog futures surged with talk the relatively low pork price favors demand.  In part, the coming Nat. Pork Month is expected to be supportive the next few weeks.