Fri, September 25, 2015 AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 25, 2015
***** Corn futures up a few cents ahead of the break; soybeans gaining 9 ¼; Chicago wheat up 3 to 4. *****
   # Broad commodity strength being observed overnight.  Outside markets are lending some support with stocks rebounding after a three-day rout.      
   # Estimates are out for next week’s quarterly Grain Stocks report:  Analysts polled by Reuters averaged a guess of 1.739 billion bushels for corn carried over into 2015/16.  Soybean stocks are pegged at 205 million versus a carryout estimate of 210 on the USDA’s September WASDE report.       
   # October 9 Supply and Demand update now just two weeks away.  The report is always deemed an important one, in part because it includes the updated 2014/15 ending stocks and because the NASS team considers FSA prevent plant data.      
   # Soybean prices are benefiting from some carryover of enthusiasm from Thursday’s purchases by the visiting group of Chinese delegates.  A total of 24 orders for 13.18 million tons was agreed to, the largest daily purchase made since a similar order of 12 million tons was made by the Chinese.    
   # An announcement of soybean purchases agreed to by the visiting Chinese delegation should be made by early afternoon today.  Traders are expecting to see 2-3 million tons booked for the current crop and several more for the 2016/17 season.    
   # Chicago wheat futures have recovered toward the psychologically-important $5 mark.  The announcement of an intended cut to Russian export taxes took some wind out of the rally on Thursday.  Some weather concerns abroad still lend the grain support.        
   # The Fed Chair indicated that an interest rate increase in 2015 was still likely.  Higher rates are not generally positive the stock market, but traders are relieved to have a bit more certainty about matters than they did a day ago.           

***** Hog futures look to trade steady ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report; cattle futures likely to start with a firmer tone. *****
   # Cattle futures will try to rebound after early-week losses pulled the board into oversold territory.  A more active cash cattle market will give the trade guidance later in the session.   
   # The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. central.  Analysts expect the all-hogs inventory number to have grown by 3.6 percent on the year.