Friday, September 25, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Friday, September 25, 2015

********** The grains rally on Friday with corn gaining 6 1/2 to 7 1/4 cents, soybeans higher by more than 20, and Chicago wheat up a dime.

   # Soybeans lead the grains higher on enthusiasm from Thursday’s Chinese soybean purchase.  There are ideas that more bushels will land in the 2015/16 export book than originally thought.     

   # The weekend weather forecast is clear and should promote plenty of harvest activity.  The Western Corn Belt is drying out after growers in Iowa and Nebraska faced heavy rains early in the week.       

   # Dry weather worries for growers in Australia, Russia, and Ukraine offset pessimistic views over demand for U.S. wheat exports.   

   # Trade estimates for next week’s quarterly Grain Stocks report include an average guess of 1.739 billion bushels for corn, 205 million for soybeans, and 2.149 billion for wheat.  AgriVisor estimates are 1.66 billion, 190 million, and 2.095 billion, respectively.        

   # A sale of 260,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China was announced on the USDA’s daily reporting system.  The sales comes as one of several expected to come as part of the 13.18 million ton purchase agreement signed on Thursday.

   # A strike being held by agriculture workers in Brazil’s public sector has lasted longer than expected and is starting to disrupt exports.      

   # A foreign investment bank lowered estimates for corn futures to $3.50 for the last quarter of 2015.      

   # A stock market rally was supporting commodities early in the session, but stock gains were fading into the end of the session.  There still exists plenty of uncertainty over when the economy will face higher interest rates.     

********** Hog futures settle $0.70 lower to $0.25 higher; live and feeder cattle futures climbed higher by the limit. *****

   # It was another interesting session for cattle futures as the board rallied by the exchange-imposed trading limit.  Futures had reached technically oversold territory and short-covering efforts were triggered.     

   # The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report leaned slightly bearish for the market.  USDA’s all-hogs-and-pigs total 103.7 percent of a year ago versus an average trade guess of 103.6.  Kept-for-breeding is 101.1 compared to expectations of 100.3 and kept-for-marketing is 103.4 versus a trade guess of 103.9.