Mon, Sept 28, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, September 28, 2015

********** Corn closed 2-3 lower; soybean closed 11-12 lower; and Chicago wheat 2-3 lower. 

   # Rapidly advancing harvest and persistent good yield reports weighed on grain to start the week.
   # Outside markets were sharply lower again, adding to the negatives in the grain pits, especially with the ongoing problems at Glencore, a major physical commodity trader.
   # Export inspections, 31.9 mln. bu. for corn, 19.5 mln. bu. of soybeans, and 23.9 mln. bu. of wheat, were a little stronger for the week, but not enough to bring speculative buying into the mix.
   # Brazil’s soybean sales are said to have ended, but a couple of more cargoes were sold over the weekend.  Their shipping pace continues to slow, indicating exports are in the early phase of winding down.
   # Wednesday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report may have triggered some long liquidation in the wake of Friday’s rally.  Expectations are: 1.739 billion bushels for corn, 205 million for soybeans, and 2.149 billion for wheat.  AgriVisor estimates are 1.66 billion, 190 million, and 2.095 billion, respectively.
   # The weekly crop ratings, 68% good/excellent for corn and 62% for soybeans were close to expectations, with traders generally dismissing soybeans 1 point drop.  The harvest numbers, 18% for corn and 21% for soybeans were slightly less than expected.  The east is further ahead; the west further behind.  Winter wheat plantings, 31%, were also a little under expectations.
   # On the daily system, the USDA reported 249,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China for this crop year, and 1 mmt. to them for next year. All are part of last week’s purchase agreements.
   # The economic calendar is full this week.  Personal income for July was revised slightly upward.  Consumer confidence reading is out Tuesday, and unemployment numbers are due at the end of the week.
********** Hog futures closed $.45 lower to $.27 higher; Cattle closed $1.52 lower to $.82 higher; feeders closed $.67 higher to $1.00 lower.  *****​

   # Short covering dominated cattle, although Oct’s premium to cash and approaching delivery pulled it sharply lower.  Wholesale beef prices were lower, but are starting to find support.       
   # The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report did not feature any major surprises, but it did show a record high headcount. Pork demand for the coming National Pork Month will be watched closely the next couple of weeks. Wholesale pork ended the day moderately higher.