Mon, September 28, 2015 AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, September 28, 2015
***** Corn steady ahead of the morning break; soybean futures off 4 cents overnight; Chicago wheat higher by 5 1/2 to 6 3/4. *****

   # Grains trade quietly mixed overnight.  Corn futures are steady after posting gains of more than a dime last week.  Wheat continues higher as soybeans turn lower from technical resistance.       
   # Outside markets not lending any support overnight.  Dow futures are off another hundred points on little fresh news.  Energies are lower while the dollar index holds steady near recent highs.    
   # Dry weather worries for growers in Australia and the Black Sea region continue to provide support to world wheat prices.
   # Trade estimates for this week’s quarterly Grain Stocks report include an average guess of 1.739 billion bushels for corn, 205 million for soybeans, and 2.149 billion for wheat.  AgriVisor estimates are 1.66 billion, 190 million, and 2.095 billion, respectively.      # The weekly Crop Progress report will be released after today’s market close.  Traders are expecting to see both corn and soybean harvest rates close to 20 percent done.  
   # Fund traders are still largely bearish the agriculture commodities.  They were net sellers of corn and soybeans last week while only covering a small fraction of shorts held on wheat.        
   # More soybean sales are expected to pop up on the USDA’s daily reporting system after China’s good-faith agreement to buy 13.18 million tons last week.        
   # The economic calendar is full this week.  Personal income data will be published later this morning, a consumer confidence reading is out on Tuesday, and unemployment numbers are due at the end of the week.  

***** Hog futures look to open lower on the week; cattle contracts poised for a firmer start.  ***** 

   # Cattle shorts are being covered now that the board has plunged down into oversold territory.  The fundamentals continue to lean bearish, but a steep cut to prices this summer has returned the market toward fair value.       
   # The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report did not feature any major surprises, but it did feature a record high headcount. The bulls will try to maintain technical support as the board faces pressure from liquidation expected early this week.