Tues, Sept 29, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

***** Corn closed near 2 cents higher, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and Chicago wheat 1-2 cents lower. *****

   # Much of Tuesday was spent getting positioned for tomorrow’s USDA Grain Stocks and Small Grains production reports.       
   # The financial/forex/energy markets only had mixed influences on the grain trade Tuesday.    
   # Dry weather worries for in Australia and the Black Sea region continue to provide background support to wheat prices.
   # Trade estimates for tomorrow’s quarterly Grain Stocks report include an average guess of 1.739 billion bushels for corn, 205 million for soybeans, and 2.149 billion for wheat.  AgriVisor estimates are 1.66 billion, 190 million, and 2.095 billion, respectively. 
   # The slightly slower than expected harvest numbers for corn and soybeans were slightly supportive.  The trade continues to talk about good yields, especially for soybeans.  
   # There were no new Chinese sales on today’s USDA’s daily reporting system, with some talk that signed contracts have still not been returned.  But at this point that may be simple book keeping issues.
   # The economic calendar is full this week.  The consumer confidence index was stronger than expected.  And home price strength remains generally robust.  Unemployment numbers are due at the end of the week.
***** Cattle futures mostly closed $3.00 lower, feeders down $4.50, with hogs $.22 to $1.82 higher. *****
   # Cattle futures resumed their emotional collapse today, with weak beef prices the key traders pointed to.  But the steep drop in wholesale beef has brought prices back toward attractive levels.  The key is uncovering a shift in emotions.
   # Stronger wholesale pork prices lifted cash and futures in the pork complex, with retailers still covering needs for National Pork Month.  But, that could be undermined by the renewed attractiveness of beef.