Wednesday, September 30, 2015 AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Wednesday, September 30, 2015
********** Corn closed 1 2 cent lower, soybeans 6-7 cents higher, and Chicago wheat 8-9 cents higher. 

   # The wheat numbers were the surprise of today’s USDA data.  The 84 mln. bu. smaller crop was not expected.  A 0.5 bu. reduction in yield was partly behind the reduction, but a 1.4 mln. acre reduction in acreage was the real surprise.  The 9/1 stocks also implied feeding was a little larger.
   # 9/1 soybean stocks, 190 mln. bu. were smaller than expected, but there were whispers in the morning it could be under 200 mln.  They reduced the size of the 2014 crop 42 mln. bu., lowering acreage one-half mln. and yield 0.3 bu./acre to 47.5 bu.  
   # The corn stocks, 1.731 bln. bu. was close to expectations and the last USDA forecast.  It only confirmed feed use/residual was larger than expected earlier this year.
   # There was talk in the afternoon about the wheat acreage downgrade and how that might tie to possible acreage adjustments for corn/soybeans on the 10/9 report.          
   # The 943,000 barrel/day ethanol output was up a little for the week, but still at a seasonally low ebb.  That equates to a 98.6 mln. bu. weekly corn grind.  
   # Tomorrow USDA/NASS releases their first U.S. soybean crush report, along with various vegoil data points.  The trade is looking for them to report a 142 mln. bu. August crush.
   # Export sales are out in the morning.  The trade is looking for: 1.3-1.7 mmt. of soybeans, 250-450,000 tons of wheat, and 700-900,000 tons of corn.
   # The economic calendar is full this week.  A private jobs number reported private sector job numbers grew 200,000 in August.  Unemployment numbers are due at the end of the week.
********** Cattle futures got hit again, with the decline ranging from $4.50-%$.95 lower, feeders down $3.52-$4.80, with hogs $.02 to $.97 lower. ***** 

   # Weakness in the cash live and wholesale market continue to drive the decline in cattle futures.  The steep drop in wholesale beef has brought prices back to attractive levels.  The key is uncovering a shift in emotional attitudes regarding wholesale and live prices.
   # Firm cash hog prices are limiting weakness in lean hog futures, but the decline in beef has turned the longer term attitude somewhat less positive, especially with increasing hog numbers into year’s end.