MarketWatch: Favorable yield reports weigh on soybeans.

Thursday, October 01, 2015
***** Corn gains a penny in the front of the curve; soybeans fall 10 to 12 1/2 cents; Chicago wheat up 4 to 5 1/2. *****

   # Grain futures finished digesting the quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports on Thursday.  Lower wheat acreage and production numbers continued to support the Chicago board.
   # Reports of exceptional soybean yields are beginning to pressure the market.  Yesterday’s revision to the 2014/15 soybean crop makes the estimate for the current crop a record large one.    
   # Thursday’s Grain Crushings report had total corn consumption for alcohol and other uses at 497.1 million bushels in August, which was down 1 percent on the month and up 1 percent on the year.   
   # Export sales were fully anticipated for corn at 29.5 million bushels.  Soybean sales at 92 million bushels were slightly above expectations while wheat sales were dismal at 3 million bushels.           
   # Wednesday’s bullish Small Grains report helped wheat futures, as did growing worries about dryness in Russia, Ukraine, Australia, India, and even the U.S. Southern Plains.    
   # Estimates for the October 9th WASDE report are starting to circulate.  Analysts are looking for 2015/16 corn carryout to land anywhere within 1.59 to 1.786 billion bushels with soybean ending stocks in between 360 to 493 million bushels.
   # Private analysts are starting to project the next Brazilian soybean crop at 99-100 million metric tons versus the current USDA estimate of 97 mmt.  Some early planting efforts are being delayed by dry conditions in Mato Grosso, wet weather in the South. 
   # Stock markets turned lower after a firmer start but did recover the majority of losses by the end of the session.  The September unemployment report is scheduled for tomorrow morning with economists looking for job gains of 200,000.    

***** Cattle futures down further, live contracts off $0.60 to $4.50 and feeders lower by $1.30 to $2.37; hogs drop $0.62 to $0.92. ***** 

   # It was a two sided trade for cattle futures before the board eventually gave into selling pressure to finish lower on Thursday.  Traders are waiting for the cash market to become active again.  Right now, bids and offers are $10 apart.  
   # Hogs futures corrected lower to return from technically overbought territory.  There is less enthusiasm about cash prices being able to sustain current levels as beef prices continue to slide.