AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch: Grain futures end the week with a wimper.

Friday, October 02, 2015

********** Corn ended fractionally changed, soybeans 2-3 cents lower, and Chi. wheat 5 cents lower.

   # Grain futures ended the week with a whimper after dealing with midweek report volatility and Friday’s equity volatility.

   # China is on “Golden Week” holiday until the middle of next week. If anything, that could temporarily subdue export buying in soybeans.

   # The USDA crop comes on Friday at 11 am central time.

   #FC Stone and Informa both came out with production expectations at week’s end.  FC Stone is looking for 167 and 46.9 bu. corn and soy yields.  Informa is looking for 168.4 and 47.2 bu. yields.  Look for trade estimates late Monday or Tuesday.

   # Weather forecasts for the Midwest are wetter for the week ahead, but the 10-14 day forecast has drier weather returning to the mix.  The latest guidance is keeping the hurricane in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Seaboard will still see heavy rains which could still cause some crop losses.  The new monthly weather forecast for October generally calls for normal weather, with some dryness to the upper Midwest.  Wet conditions are more likely for the deep Southern Plains. 

   # Stock markets turned in a volatile day Friday, initially breaking on a poor jobs number, but quickly turning upward when downside follow-through failed to surface.

   # Cattle futures rallied on end of week short covering.  But with cash prices at their lowest levels in nearly 2 years, there’s finally a hesitancy to stay short.  There’s a history of V-bottoms in cattle; it’s a matter of what triggers it.

   # Hogs futures rebounded with gains in cattle futures, but the lack of upward momentum in the cash markets may be starting to become a drag.  Traders are aware of the downward seasonal trend that could start at any time.