Morning MarketWatch: Clear weekend weather outlook pressures grains overnight.

Friday, October 02, 2015
*****Corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat all down 2-3 cents overnight.  Traders await economic data.*****

# Grains moderately lower across the board.  Corn futures trade near the bottom of a three cent range.  The overnight ranges are six for soybeans and five for Chicago wheat.         
# Weekend weather forecast is favorable for harvest progress.  Most of the Midwest will remain dry unless the developing Hurricane Joaquin pushes rain into parts of the Eastern Corn Belt.  Temperatures are expected to warm again for most of the country next week.            
# Weekly export sales reports like the one issued on Thursday remind traders that sales are well behind the pace needed to meet USDA targets.  A strong dollar and abundant supplies of grain in the Black Sea and soybeans in South America are part to blame.           
# The October Supply and Demand report is now one week away.  USDA analysts are expected to make several adjustments to the balance sheet, with yield, acres, and demand all on the table for revision.               
# Dry weather abroad has been a talked-about market influence over the past few weeks. Dryness is currently a concern for growers in Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and India. 
# Parts of Brazil are unseasonably dry.  Farmers in the Mato Grosso region are needing some moisture as they begin the soybean planting season.  Relief is expected to come in the form of rains that are forecasted for the area next week.  
# Strong soybean yield reports are becoming a headwind for prices.  Traders will likely look for a small upward revision to the USDA's soybean yield estimate due to be adjusted next Friday. 
# A key economic report approaches this morning in the September jobs report.  Traders look for the economy to have added 200,000 workers to the payroll.   Unemployment should remain unchanged at 5.1 percent.  There may finally have been an uptake in wage growth, with the trade looking for year-on-year pay gains of 2.4 percent.

***** Hog futures look to open steady/weaker in a technical correction; cattle futures likely to stage a rebound effort after early-week losses. ***** 

# Development of a cash market later today will give the cattle futures trade some guidance after another volatile week.  Wholesale prices may have been cut enough to restore the perception of fair value in the market.
# More competitive beef prices should begin to become a headwind for cash hog prices.  For now, cutout values remain firm and support the board, but futures are hovering very close to technically overbought territory.