AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, October 05, 2015
***** Corn ended 4 higher,, soybeans 9-10 higher, and Chi. wheat 2-3 higher. *****
   # Bloomberg issued their report expectations; 166.7 bu. corn(-0.8) and a 13.482 bln. bu. crop(-103), 47.2 bu. soybeans(+0.1) and a 3.911 bln. bu. crop(-.016).  
   # Ending stocks estimates were lower too; corn 1.546 bln. bu.(-.046), soybeans 428 mln. bu.(-22), and wheat 828 mln. bu.(-47).
   # Soybean harvest is 42% complete; the trade was expecting 41%.  Corn harvest is 27% complete; the trade looked for 30%.  Wheat plating is 49% done; the trade was looking for 47%.
   # Export inspections were good for soybeans, 41.3 mln. bu.  Corn export inspections were light 18.5 mln. bu., with wheat at 20.5 mln. bu., also light.  Both corn and wheat lag last year, but soybeans are ahead.
   # Weather remains a key variable supporting wheat prices.  Conditions are expected to generally remain dry in the Black Sea area, but light showers are possible this week.  Conditions are expected to be cool, slowing germination and emergence.  Australian conditions are still in a generally dry pattern with the wheat crop heading.  Argentina had another light frost over the weekend.  Southern Brazil remains wet.  Showers are in the short term mix for our S. Plains, but mostly the longer range outlooks are warm dry.  The Corn Belt is expected to be mostly dry too, good for harvest, but not for emerging winter wheat.
   # Malaysian weather has turned dry, a signature El Nino pattern, and is expected to cut output.  Palm oil prices are firming, translating into strength in soyoil.
   # In S. America, there’s talk farmers may shift some acreage away from high cost corn to lower cost soybeans. 
   # Friday’s softer job numbers are expected to deter the Fed from raising interest rates this month.  Equity markets around the world moved higher on those expectations.  There was discussion about the agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but not a lot of agreement on what the various implications might be.

***** Cattle futures closed $1.15 to $.77 lower; lean hog closed $.65 lower to $.60 higher.

   # Weak wholesale prices continue to drive the negative attitude, but volume for a Monday was reasonably good, implying demand at the lower levels.  Feedlot showlists are mixed, larger in the north/smaller in the south.
   # Cash hog prices are struggling more to move up with supply and demand starting to approach short term equilibrium.  Pork demand is expected to erode during Oct., with supply starting to move higher again.