Agrivisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, October 06, 2015
***** Corn ended 4-5 higher, soybeans 3-4 higher, and Chi. wheat 10-12 higher. ***** 

   # Dollar weakness, triggered by our trade data, and ideas the Fed won’t raise rates this month, triggered buying across the commodity spectrum, including grains. 
   # Ukraine officials have set an agreement with exporters to cap corn exports at 16.0 mmt. this year and wheat at 16.5 mmt. to keep domestic supplies from becoming too tight.  The corn export cap would be a 21% drop from last year’s level, pushing some of the world business elsewhere. 
   # Weather remains a key variable supporting wheat prices.  Conditions are expected to generally remain dry in the Black Sea area, but light showers are possible late this week.  Conditions are expected to turn cool, slowing germination and emergence.  Australian forecasts include some showers in the southeast, but the west is expected to remain dry in the near term.  U.S. weather is expected to remain warm, dry in the Midwest.  That’s good for harvest, but not good to get the new wheat crop well established, especially in some of the drier areas of the southern Corn Belt.
   # Malaysian weather has turned dry, a signature El Nino pattern, and is expected to cut output.  Palm oil prices are firming, translating into strength in soyoil.
   # Traders are watching Brazilian weather closer.  Planting is going well in Parana, one of the old southern states.  But moisture is slow to develop in the northern areas where all the expansion has taken place in recent years, with only 1.6% of the planting done in Mato Grosso.  Still, it is early.
   # Along with the USDA issuing our crop report Friday, CONAB(the Brazilian counterpart) will release their latest crop numbers, including their first forecast for their new crop.   Expanded plantings are expected, with production estimates expected in the 97-102mmt. range.
   # The equity markets didn’t have direction Tuesday.  The weakness in the Dollar worked against it, along with the focus on commodities. 

***** Cattle futures were mostly up the $3.00 limit, feeders mostly up the $4.50 limit, and lean hogs $2.00-$.045 higher. ***** 

   # Wholesale beef prices closed near steady, which might disappoint the futures trade tomorrow.  There’s been very little cash cattle trade this week, leaving the cash market ill defined.
   # Cash hog prices are holding near steady.  The upward move in wholesale pork prices appears to be stalling, with weak beef possibly starting to become a drag.