Agrivisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, October 08, 2015
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are mixed/lower to start the day; soybeans down 3-4, corn down 1, and wheat up 1. *****

   # Other than the export sales coming later this morning, the trade doesn’t have much fresh to work with as they wait on tomorrow’s USDA numbers.  Palm oil is weakening, helping put a drag across the soy complex, which is pulling on corn and wheat too.  There’s little negative, other than the trade looking for higher Malaysian stocks on the coming monthly report.  Weather remains hot, dry in southeastern Asia keeping production expectations subdued. Reports indicate India has been a huge buyer of soyoil the over the last week, 350-400,000 tons.
   # Soymeal demand remain steady, with the basis in most places still good for having a large crop, and a large crush pace.  Our crush margins remain historically good as well.  
   # Export sales will be out at 7:30.  The trade is looking for: 175-375,000 tons of wheat, 550-750,000 tons of corn, 750,000-1.2 mmt. of soybeans, and 100-300,000 tons of wheat.
   #China is resuming normal economic activities with the end of the Golden Week holiday yesterday.  Preliminary trade figures will come the next few days(they like weekend releases); watch for the preliminary Sept. soybean imports.  They will offer some insight into Chinese demand the world seems so worried about.
   #Weather forecasts remain generally good, with both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks calling for mostly below normal precipitation across the Midwest.  But the 2 week forecasts are starting to turn cool, cold again.  The pattern is still good for harvest, but not good for getting the winter wheat crop established.
   #So far, the weather outlook for the Black Sea region remains mostly dry, but there does appear to be some potential activity in the southern jet which could bring some moisture to the Caucasus region.  Still, temps are expected to remain on the cold side, slowing germination, growth.  Southern African areas are seeing a droughty pattern, no rain, hot temps(typical for El Nino).  There is a chance of light showers over the weekend in Mato Grosso, but for the most part, it still looks hot, dry.  Early soybean planting is getting off to a slow start in northern areas because of dry conditions.  Parana’s moisture is reasonably good, with early planting going well.  Rio Grande do Sul is too wet.  Some light showers could occur in southeastern Australia over the weekend, but amounts are not expected to be enough to offset impact of recent drying. Western Australia will stay dry.
   #The Dollar is narrowly mixed in the early going.  Traders are waiting on the release of Fed minutes later today.  Jobless claims will be out later today as well.  The BOJ left their monetary policy unchanged.
***** Cattle should start slightly higher; lean hogs mixed/lower. *****  

   #Wholesale beef is near steady, but the volume is a little better.  Wholesale pork is steady, with this week’s volume a less robust.  Packers are making money slaughtering both.
   #Cash hogs should be steady/weak.  Cattle have traded $4-$6 higher already this week.