Morning MarketWatch: Grains start narrowly mixed as the week looks to end quietly.

Friday, October 16, 2015
***** Corn futures down a penny ahead of the morning break; soybeans up fractionally; Chicago higher by 1 1/4 cent.​ *****

   # Corn futures are down moderately overnight as the nearby December makes a test of technical support at $3.75.  We will look to see if the board finds any support now that prices have made a 62 percent retracement of the September rally.   
   # The National Weather Service’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have both shifted wetter for the Corn Belt. Chances for rain increase significantly after this weekend, when the first frost is expected to occur.              
   # Despite the country’s export tax, Russian traders were still able to fill part of Egypt’s latest wheat tender.  World wheat prices are rising, but Black Sea growers like Russia and Romania still hold a competitive advantage.                   
   # There is currently much uncertainty over estimates for world wheat production.  The USDA’s latest 1 million ton addition to their estimate for Australian output is in disagreement with most private analysts’ views and weather troubles remain for wheat crops in the Black Sea region.       
   # Asian palm oil prices trade lower on Friday after a report showed high inventories and weak exports.  U.S. soy oil prices are supported as domestic stockpiles draw down.    
   # Traders are already talking acres for 2016.  Informa analysts will report their latest estimates for next year’s acreage mix today.      
   # The dollar is trading with moderate gains against most currencies, allowing index futures to move higher after five straight days of losses.  A strong dollar continues to be a burden for U.S. grain exporters.    
   # China made financial headlines as stock markets there rallied this week.  An important Chinese GDP number will be reported on Monday.  U.S. stock index futures are trading fractionally lower after a strong rally on Thursday.  Traders will digest more jobs data and a consumer confidence reading later today.  

***** Hog futures look to open steady/higher; cattle futures may have potential to inch higher into the end of the week. ***** 

   # Hog futures are losing momentum now that seasonal expectations are starting to turn bearish.  The board still maintains strong technical support, though.  
   # Traders are waiting to see where the cash cattle market develops later today.  The most-active December live cattle contract holds gains of $2.17 for week.