AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, October 19, 2015
 ***** Check Cattle Advice *****

***** Corn futures closed 3-4 cents lower, soybeans 6-7 cents lower, and Chicago wheat d-7 cents lower. ***** 

   # Even though the Chinese GDP data was better than expected, economists were dismissive of it, setting a generally negative tone across many markets, but especially the commodity sector.      
   # Soybean export inspections were exceptional, 86.9 mln. bu., but were largely ignored due to other factors.  The corn, 18.1 mln. bu., and wheat, 7.5 mln. bu., inspections were somewhat negative.
   # Weather played into the mix as well, with the latest forecasts having good harvest weather for the Midwest, along with some rain for the Southern Plains(new wheat), in parts of Ukraine/Russia(new wheat), and even some possible light showers for parts of northern Brazil(new-soybeans).
   # The USDA reported 238,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China on their daily reporting system.
   # The weekly progress numbers were close to expectations.  77% of the soybean area has been harvested, 59% of the corn, with 76% of the winter wheat area now seeded.    
   # Water problems on the rivers, and scattered closures are firming barge freight levels.  That may be starting to undermine interior basis levels.  Soybeans may be less affected with good crush margins prevailing.
   # Brazil is said to be 13% complete with planting, compared to 18% on average. Mato Grosso is 14.3% done compared to the 23.5% avg. 
   # Stock markets were 2 sided to start the week, with analysts/investors not sure what to make of the latest Chinese economic data.  3rd qtr. GDP was said to be +6.9%, better than expected.  But it was dismissed somewhat as it seemed high relative to other economic data that has come out recently.  The negative perceptions of Chinese economic activity undermined energy prices.  The Dollar ended slightly stronger.

***** Live cattle futures had another strong day, ending $2.32-$4.15 higher with feeders $2.00-$1.50 higher; hog futures ended $.40 higher to $.32 lower.  *****

   # Cattle futures move sharply higher again when it was reported some cash trade occurred as high as $137 late Friday, up $8-$9 on the week.  Wholesale beef continues to move up with packer and retailer margins both good.
   # Weakening wholesale prices and steady/weak cash hog prices have become a drag on lean hog futures.