AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, October 20, 2015
***** Corn futures closed 3-4 cents higher, soybeans 5-6 cents higher, and Chicago wheat 4-5 cents higher. ***** 

   # Short covering dominated the markets on Tuesday, best evidenced by the slippage in soybeans after the early rally. Wheat held better on world weather concerns, helping to support corn futures.
   # Monday’s harvest and export numbers quickly faded, although the trade continues to talk up negative attitudes regarding corn and wheat exports.  They didn’t respond to the good soybean number though.
   # Weather is a part of the mix for wheat and soybeans.  Rains are expected for our S. Plains, but mostly the pattern stays dry across much of Ukraine/Russia(new wheat).  Mostly dry weather is expected across the center/west area of Brazil’s soybean belt.  Southern areas are still getting some showers.
   # The USDA reported 132,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China on their daily reporting system.  The bulk of that activity is staying below the 100,000 ton reporting threshold. 
   # There’s a sense harvest will start to wind down for soybeans this week, with corn harvest getting “over the hump,” moving toward conclusion.  Weather generally looks favorable for harvest in the Midwest.
   # Water problems on the rivers, and scattered closures are firming barge freight levels.  That may be starting to undermine interior basis levels.  Soybeans may be less affected with good crush margins prevailing.
   # Brazil is said to be 13% complete with planting, compared to 18% on average. Mato Grosso is 14.3% done compared to the 23.5% avg. 
   # Equity/forex/energy markets were relatively quiet with little news.  The weekly crude oil/ethanol data will be out tomorrow at 9:30 central time. 

***** Live cattle futures had another strong day, ending $1.97-$0.50 higher with feeders $.30 higher-$.27 lower; hog futures ended $1.87-$.20 higher.
   # Ongoing talk of strong cash cattle prices, with offers said to be at $140 is keeping futures strong.  Wholesale beef continues to move up with good retailer margins.  Packer margins are slipping toward break-even.
   # Hog futures followed the lead of cattle futures, with Dec. the strongest because of the discount it has to the cash index.  Wholesale pork prices are eroding.