Morning MarketWatch: Grains look to rebound in turnaround Tuesday trade.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015
***** Corn futures up a penny ahead of the morning break; soybeans higher by 3 1/2 across the curve; Chicago wheat up 2 1/4 to 3 1/2. ​*****

   # Grains are at the high side of tight trading ranges early on Tuesday.  Fresh fundamental input is lacking overnight.  
   # Crop Progress numbers were reported on Monday afternoon.  Corn harvest was pegged at 59 percent as of Sunday while 77 percent of soybeans have been cut.  The soybean estimate was a bit higher than the trade had expected.  Winter wheat planting progress is 76 percent.                  
   # The forecast has shifted drier over the past few days.  Chances for rain may be confined to the Eastern Corn Belt with expectations for some light showers to move through the region at the end of the week.
   # A dry outlook for parts of the West has winter wheat growers in the Great Plains a bit worried.  Growers across the country are hoping that El Nino will provide the type of wet winter that is normally associated with the meteorological phenomenon.  
   # Corn basis remains relatively firm in the East.  Central Illinois basis averages near 15 under and is notably better than the 40 under that was being paid this time last year. 
   # Growers in Brazil continue to face weather troubles as they plant soybeans and first-crop corn.  The Mato Grosso region is too dry while Parana in the South has been burdened by heavy rains.  
   # The Brazilian and Argentine currencies remain near record lows against the dollar, providing competitive terms of trade for their grain exports and encouraging large acreage for 2016.  
   # Global equity markets are processing news out of China.  Yesterday’s GDP data had the country growing by 6.9 percent last quarter, which was better than expected but did little to spark any buying interest.  Today, we see that the Shanghai stock composite put together a rally and that the yuan currency made gains.      

***** Hog futures look to open steady/higher in a bid to rebound from recent losses; cattle futures have positive momentum, but will face some technical resistance soon. ***** 

   # Hog futures have both fundamental and technical pressure working against them.  Seasonal expectations call for a lower market now that October Pork Month is wrapping up.  December futures have lost chart support from the major moving averages and looks headed for a test of the year’s low.     
   # Traders are suggesting that the bottom is in for cattle futures with many shorts looking for a spot to cover.  Some light trade was observed at higher prices in the dressed trade to start the week, but no action yet in the live market.