Agrivisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, October 22, 2015
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are slightly higher to start the day; soybeans up 3-4, corn up 2-3, and wheat up 5-6. *****

   # The biggest thing going for the grains today, and this week, may be the wind down of row crop harvest, in the U.S. and the world.  End users are having to pay up to get supplies out of producer hands, especially in the eastern Corn Belt.  Some of this is said to be tied to the lack of rains, and emerging concerns about what the implications are for the 2016 crops.  Even interesting in selling wheat is limited when futures are under $$5.00.
   # The trade is talking about China’s record Sept. soybean imports, 7.26 mmt., with the vessel line-ups suggesting Oct. imports could be a record as well. 
   # Export sales today will be closely scrutinized, especially soybeans and the focus on China.  The trade is expecting: 1.2-1.8 mmt. of soybeans, 150-300,000 tons of soymeal, 450-650,000 tons of corn, and 300-500,000 tons of wheat. 
   # Production expectations continue to erode for the Brazilian wheat crop because of weather issues.  The latest numbers put the crop at 6.6 mmt., down from official govt. estimates of 7.7 mmt.  And their might be some quality issues with the Argentine crop which could shift some buying to N. America again, at least to buy some quality wheat for blending.
   # Weather remains the other variable, as it pertains to new crops around the world.  Much needed rain remains in the mix for our S. Plains.  Australia remains mostly hot, dry, although the latest forecasts include some moisture chances in the east toward the end of the 7 day outlook.  There has been some rain in western Ukraine the last 24-48 hours.  Rain is in the short term forecast for eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, but it’s coming too late to stimulate much, if any, late planting of winter crops.
   # In Mato Grosso Brazil, the outlook continues to call for warm, dry for the next 7 days, although some see shower chances next week.  That’s tied to some chance of light showers in states to the east as well.  Conditions in the southern states and into Argentina are better, but in some areas, it’s still too wet. 
   # Argentines will head to the polls Sunday to elect a new President.  The outcome of this election will be monitored closely to gauge the potential implications for agr. Policy.
   # The Dollar is stronger to start the day, with more attention starting to focus on next week’s Fed Reserve policy meeting.  Jobless claims come later today.  The ECB is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged.
***** Cattle should start steady/weak; lean hogs mixed. *****
   # Wholesale beef is mixed, with volume indications suggesting the move up is stalling for now.  Pork prices are higher, with this week’s volume better than anticipated.  The trade is starting to look ahead to the drag November usually places on red meat demand.
   # Cash hogs should be steady/firm.  Feedlots are said to be asking $140-$142 for cattle, but may end up pricing animals just under that level.