Afternoon Marketwatch; employment number hit a lot of sectors Friday

Friday, November 06, 2015
***** At day’s end, corn ended near steady to 1 1/2 cent lower, soybeans 3 to 3 1/2 cents higher, and wheat 3 lower to 3/4 cent higher. ***** 

   # Grains, like other commodity markets, started the day lower in the wake of the better than expected employment number, and the surge in the Dollar.  End of week short covering brought them back close to unchanged, if not slightly higher on the day. 
   # It was reported 271,000 jobs were added to the economy in October.  Economists were only looking for a 183,000 increase.  The strong performance is thought to have paved the way for the Fed to raise interest rates at their December meeting, something they’ve been wanting to do.  Fed Chairman Yellen this week before the jobs report that a raise could come in Dec. 
   # Reuters crop report estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report were released midweek.  The average guess calls for corn yield at 168.4 bushels per acre versus the October USDA at 168.  Soybean yield is pegged at 47.5 bushels per acres, up from the current USDA 47.2.   
   # Producers in the U.S. continue to be tight-fisted with grain sales in the face of low prices.  Basis levels have improved in many areas as a mechanism to encourage producer selling interest.  Traders were talking on Tuesday about ADM’s CEO estimating that only 30 percent of the 2015 corn harvest and 35 percent of this year’s soybean production had been sold by producers so far.   
   # The latest weather forecasts for the center/west and eastern parts of Brazil have turned warm, dry again.  Recent showers have pushed planting along with Mato Grosso said to now be 61% complete, only slightly behind normal.  Some of the forecasts are also hinting of maybe too much moisture across southern Brazil and Argentina.  In Argentina, 36% of the corn is planted, with soybean planting likely to start at any time.  There is a chance of some showers in the Black Sea area, but as a whole, the pattern remains somewhat dry.
   # Trading funds lightened up their short Chi. wheat positions this week, but are still short.  They added to their short KC wheat positions slightly. Data shows they liquidates some of their long corn positions, but are still slightly long.  In soybeans, they added to their short position.

***** Live cattle futures closed $0.15 to $0.60 higher, feeders $1.00 to $0.12 lower, and lean hogs $0.40 lower to $0.42 higher. ***** 

   # The steep collapse in the cash hog market continues with wholesale prices dropping another $.50/cwt. with slaughter capacity issues dropping hog prices even more.      
   # Cattle futures had a modest rebound after filling upgaps left a month ago, but weak live and wholesale prices continue to work against strength.  Cattle traded at $126-$135 at week’s end, with wholesale prices $1.50 to $3.20 lower on the day.
   # Trading funds added to short positions in hogs this past week, but are still long.  In live cattle, they added to short positions, but are still slightly long.