Morning MarketWatch: Markets quiet ahead of key economic data

Friday, November 06, 2015
***** Corn up fractionally overnight, trading a 1-cent range; soybeans up 1 to 3 cents; Chicago wheat down 3 to 4. ​*****

   # Corn and soybeans making a weak rebound after Thursday’s tumble.  The grains are likely to trade with extra influence from outside markets on Friday after October unemployment data is published.      
   # Rain fell over a wide swath of the Midwest on Thursday afternoon/evening.  Totals were heavier in the South.  The Midwest will enjoy clear skies through the weekend, but rain could fall in the Mid-South, where growers still have some harvest yet to wrap up.       
   # More analysts are expecting cuts to the grain export targets next week after Thursday’s report featured another disappointing round of new sales.      
   # Estimates are circulating for the upcoming update to the USDA’s world grain output estimates.  The average trade guess looks for 2015/16 corn production to be up slightly from the October report, wheat production to be lower by 700,000 tons, and soybean production to hold steady.             
   # Traders are wondering whether Ukrainian officials will enact wheat export restrictions now that weather troubles have threatened winter crop production.       
   # Palm oil price strength has provided some support to the soy market recently.  Bullish expectations for the palm oil market have developed as traders expect production to be hurt by El Nino.  Still, upside for prices is limited by large inventories currently held.         
   # An active export program in Brazil has left ports crowded.  U.S. exporters are expected to gain business if Brazilian shipping delays persist.  
   # Outside markets are quiet overnight as traders await the unemployment report.  Stock futures trade steady as the dollar index makes slight gains.  Bond prices are higher after a several-session slide.  Oil is up as the energy products trade relatively firmer.  Metals are higher with the exception of copper. 

***** Livestock futures look to open steady/higher in a bid to bounce from oversold territories on the charts.  ***** 

   # Cattle futures are likely to have already priced in what should be a lower cash trade today.  Traders will look to wholesale beef early in the day before cash markets become more active.  
   # Investment money is being liquidated from the hog market at a rapid clip as bearish seasonal expectations now become self-fulfilling.  The selloff continues in an effort to balance the fundamental negatives of large, heavy inventories and tepid demand.