Morning MarketWatch: Livestock look to stabilize after volatile week

Monday, November 09, 2015
***** Corn up fractionally overnight; soybeans up 1 to 4 cents; Chicago wheat down 3 to 5.  *****

   # Corn and soybeans trade steady to slightly higher as wheat sells off moderately.  Export inspections and weekly Crop Progress data will be reported today. 
   # Traders will be positioning themselves for the USDA report today. Updated balance sheets will be published at 11:00 a.m. central on Tuesday.  Analysts expect ending stocks estimates for corn and soybeans to rise on slightly higher yields.    
   # The weekend was mostly dry for the Midwest.  Clear skies and cool temperatures aided fieldwork efforts.  Rain in the Mid-South delayed the last bits of harvest in parts of that region.  Rain returns to the Corn Belt Wednesday and Thursday.  The two-week outlook remains warmer and wetter than normal.            
   # Conditions in Mato Grosso, Brazil remain on the dry side.  Growers in the state of Parana are enjoying favorable weather while Rio Grande in the southern tip of Brazil is a bit too wet.  Some estimates for Brazilian soybean production are shrinking, but most remain above 100 million tons.               
   # Traders are eager to see where the USDA’s corn output estimate lands for Argentina.  Many private estimates hover near 21-22 million tons while the USDA October pegged it at 24 million.  Market participants are also keeping an eye on Argentina because the country has its runoff presidential election coming up on November 22nd.  
   # A Chinese trade report is being digested this morning.  The numbers were disappointing as a whole, but October soybean imports were an exception. 5.5 million tons represented a 35 percent gain on the year and came in better than expected.    
   # Fund traders continued to cover wheat shorts during their last reporting week but liquidated a portion of corn longs and turned net-short in soybean holdings.    
   # Outside markets are leaning somewhat friendly for the grains to start the week.  Energies are higher, attempting a rebound out of last week’s selloff.  Dollar index futures are moderately lower but the dollar is holding steady against the Brazilian real.  Gold and silver trade higher.  

***** Livestock futures look to open steady/higher in a bid to bounce from oversold territories on the charts.  ***** 

   # Cattle futures will look to rebound after a tough week.  The market suffers pressure from large beef inventories and seasonally weak demand.  The charts lean negative but should provide support to the board in short-run while futures are technically oversold.    
   # Oversupply is the issue for hogs, with slaughters up nearly 8 percent on the year.  Pork demand is waning as we approach Thanksgiving and further pressures wholesale prices.