AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch; grain reaction to Tuesday's break

Wednesday, November 11, 2015
***** Corn futures closed 1 1/2 to 3 1/4 cents higher; soybeans 4 to 5 higher; Chicago wheat 1/2 to 4 higher.  ***** 

   # In the wake of yesterday’s negative USDA numbers and break in grain prices traders were more timid with their negative price expectations given the lack of downside follow-through when prices broke Tuesday.
   # The trade generally thinks much of the larger production estimates had been factored into the market with the “big crops get bigger” talk.
   # Typical weekly grain reports have been delayed a day by today’s Veteran’s Day holiday.  The weekly ethanol number will come tomorrow.  Export sales will come on Friday.       
   # Egypt bought 120,000 tons of wheat on a tender, half from Russia and half from France.  The average price was slightly higher than yesterday’s purchase and their most recent tender at the end of October.  Algeria is tendering for wheat for January shipment.        
   # There’s been no soybean purchases reported on the USDA daily system following Monday’s sale to unknown and switch of unknown to China.      
   # Weather remains a key variable with the trade watching the Black Sea region and S. America closely.  The latest forecasts for the Black Sea region has showers in some locations, with dryness persisting in others.  But moisture at this late date is not expected to boost the crop condition.  In the center/west area of Brazil, the longer range outlook is slated to turn hot, dry again following recent showers.  Southern Brazil and Argentina remain in good shape.  S. Africa remains hot, dry.
   # Brazilian soybean plantings are said to be 42% done.  Argentine planting is 8% complete.  Arg. corn planting is 36% done.     
   # Both Argentine Presidential candidates are promising to cut the export tax; the ruling party candidate quickly to 25%, then a gradual elimination.  The contender is planning to cut it to 30%, then 5% each year after.  The election is Nov. 22. 
   # There’s still a lot of introspection about the Chinese corn situation given the revisions on the WASDE report yesterday.  There was a US Ag. Attaché report from China posted today as well.
   # The dollar paused ahead of a host of Fed Reserve official speeches over the few weeks.  Comments from the forex/financial trade indicate analysts are pretty well convinced the Fed will raise rates in December.
***** Live cattle mostly ended $3.00 higher; feeders $4.50 higher;  lean hogs $2.30-$0.72 higher. ***** 

   # Talk a packer was bidding $130 for cattle today triggered a wave of short covering.  Wholesale prices ended lower again, but packer margins are not so bad they can’t absorb it.  Talk is starting to emerge of better beef demand in December, with retailers expected to start purchases next week.
   # Tuesday’s strong volume in the wholesale pork trade triggered talk hog prices might be at a near term low.  Cash hog prices were slightly lower again Wednesday, but the strength in other meats and good wholesale demand Wednesday were enough to make traders think a low may be at hand.