Morning MarketWatch: A slight portion of report day losses recovered overnight

Wednesday, November 11, 2015
***** Corn up fractionally ahead of the morning break; soybeans up 3 to 4 cents; Chicago wheat higher by 4 to 5 3/4. *****

   # Grains rebounding mildly after the report day break.  No government reports today as offices are closed for Veteran’s Day.  
   # Crop Production numbers are still likely to hang over corn and soybeans in the near-term.  USDA surprised by estimating corn yield at 169.3 bushels per acre versus October 168 and trade average 168.5.  Soybean yield jumped from 47.2 to 48.3 compared to trade estimates near 47.5.        
   # The two-week forecast for most of the U.S. remains wet and warm.  A dry Midwest gives way to rains on Thursday, when high winds will also sweep through the region.   
   # Wet weather has been welcomed by growers in Mato Grosso, Brazil this week.  Soybean are improving as the rainy season kicks off.  A turn to drier weather late this week may still hold a threat for germinating crops. USDA kept unchanged its 100 million ton Brazilian soybean crop estimate on Tuesday, but upped the corn output prediction by 1.5 million tons. 
   # The Argentine presidential runoff election is scheduled for November 22nd.  Poll leader Mauricio Macri is a business-friendly candidate who promises a cut to agriculture export taxes.                   
   # Palm oil prices have been choppy throughout the past several days.  Data this morning show Malaysian exports up for the month of October but down in the first 10 days of November.  Prices were also influence early on Wednesday by currency volatility.  U.S. soy oil prices are down fractionally overnight.          
   # Fund traders were seen exiting long corn positions on Tuesday, liquidating on the net an estimated 20-25,000 contracts.  Managed money also added to a newly-established net-short soybean position.         
   # Oil prices are on the defensive as news of Iraqi product headed to the U.S. circulates.  U.S. equity index futures are higher overnight on broad international stock strength.  The dollar is down against the major currencies and down against the Brazilian real.     

***** Livestock futures look to enjoy a steady/firmer start as contracts bounce from oversold territory.  ***** 

   # Cash market pessimism has tugged cattle futures lower to start the week, but steady wholesale values may now lend some support.  Futures are technically oversold in the near-run.        
   # It’s 14 lower closes out of 15 for lean hog futures.  High slaughter rates and sluggish demand have long fund traders spooked and running for the exit.