AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch: quiet day Thursday

Thursday, November 12, 2015
***** Corn futures closed 1/4 to 1/2 cent lower; soybeans steady to 3 higher; Chicago wheat 2 1/2 to 3 1/4 higher.  ***** 

   # The trade is still assessing the changes in Tuesday’s USDA numbers.  More are understanding the lower corn ethanol grind was necessary to account for a larger grind of grain sorghum for ethanol this year.
   # There continues to be talk about the Black Sea area wheat crops.  One story suggested the condition of the Ukrainian crop is as bad as 2011; 2012 production was off about 30%.  
   # The weekly ethanol output was a new high of the year, 982,000 bpd, equivalent to a corn grind of 102 mln. bu.        
   # Export sales come tomorrow(delayed by the holiday).  The trade is looking for: soybeans 600,000 to 1 mmt., soymeal 150-350,000 tons, corn 450-650,000 tons, and wheat 150-350,000 tons.  The USDA did report 300,000 tons of soybeans were bought by China today.
   # Weather remains a key variable with the trade watching the Black Sea region and S. America closely.  The latest forecasts for the Black Sea region has showers in some locations, with dryness persisting in others.  But moisture at this late date is not expected to boost condition before it goes dormant.  In the center/west and eastern areas of Brazil, the outlook is slated to turn hot, dry over the next week following recent showers.  Southern Brazil and Argentina remain in good shape.  S. Africa remains hot, dry.
   # Argentine planting is 8% complete.  Arg. corn planting is 36% done.     
   # There’s still a lot of introspection about the Chinese corn situation given the revisions on the WASDE report yesterday.  There was a US Ag. Attaché report from China posted today as well.
   # The dollar slipped Thursday after a Fed official only gave tepid support to the idea it’s time to start raising rates.  His comments also triggered the wave of profit taking in the equity markets.  Fed Chairman Yellen didn’t offer any new insight. There is also some anxiousness regarding Friday’s retail sales numbers.  Uncertainty about what the European Central Bank plans to do is adding to the uncertain mix.

***** Live cattle mostly ended $1.32 to $0.50 higher; feeders $1.05 higher to $0.50 lower; lean hogs $0.05 to $1.25 higher. ***** 

   # Wholesale beef prices plummeted Thursday, capping packer interest in buying cattle.  Cash trade was non-existent.  Packer margins are hovering near break-even.  Talk is starting to emerge of better beef demand in December, with retailers expected to start purchases next week; lower wholesale prices will help that.
   # Good volume in the wholesale market was accompanied by higher prices Thursday, supporting talk of good demand.  Cash hog prices were either side of steady, but continue to restrained by abundant supply.  Packer margins are very good.