Agrivisor Morning Marketwatch: export sales this am

Friday, November 13, 2015
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are mixed to lower start the day; soybeans steady- down 4 cents, corn fractionally lower, with fractionally changed. *****

   # Export sales will be the major news for the day.  The trade expects: soybeans 600,000-1 mmt tons, soymeal 150-350,000 tons, corn 450-650,000 tons, and wheat 150-350,000 tons
   # There’s some talk this morning about yesterday’s/this week’s broad weakness across commodities.  Today they are pointing to weakness in Asian stocks and the number of new loans declining in China.
   # With the passing of the USDA November report, there’s a lot more focus on demand, and specifically demand for U.S. grains.  And even though demand for U.S. grain(other than soy), might be soft, it’s being offset at present by the lack of producer selling.  They may give some leeway to next week’s report to see if soybean activity gets re-invigorated.
   # The trade is still talking about USDA’s revision of the Chinese corn s/ds, and the implications for the world markets.  But at best, they’ve been an inconsistent player in the world markets in recent years, becoming modestly important the last couple of years.
   # The Rosario Grain Exchange is looking for the Argentine corn crop to be near 20 mmt, down 5 mmt from last year.  With planting still underway that could change somewhat depending on the outcome of the Nov. 22 election.
   # NOPA will release their Oct. crush number Monday.  The trade is looking for 158-161 mln. bu.
   # Informa economics is said to be releasing their 2016 acreage estimates this morning.  
   # Weather remains a key variable as it pertains to new crops around the world.  Argentina and southern Brazil remain mostly good with showers interspersed by dry days.  The center/west and eastern areas though are expected to be hot, dry over the next week again.  Showers are coming to parts of Russia/Ukraine, but will not benefit the wheat crop much at his time as it is entering dormancy.  Eastern Australia will turn dry into early next week after having showers this week.  Western Australia will remain mostly dry, with temps normal/warm.  Wheat harvest is underway in Australia. 
   # The Dollar is slightly higher in the overnight trade with most of the attention on the coming ECB and Fed meetings, and possible policy shifts.  3rd qtr. eurozone growth was only 0.3%, down from the 0.4% growth in the 2nd qtr. 

***** Cattle should start steady/firm; lean hogs slightly higher. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is lower, with volume seasonably light.  Post-Thanksgiving business won’t come for another week. Pork prices are higher, with the volume unseasonably strong.  
   # Cash hogs should be steady/firm.  The cash cattle trade has been limited this week, but feedlots are thought to be asking $134+ to sell animals.  Packer bids have been in the mid-$120s.  Look for trade at $130, or slightly under.