AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, November 16, 2015
***** Corn futures closed 1 – 1 1/4 higher; soybeans 4 – 4 1/2 higher; Chicago wheat 1 3/4 to 2 1/2 lower.  Kansas City wheat futures still managed a small gain, ending 1 – 2 higher.  ***** 

   # The recovery in the financial/forex markets may have actually helped bolster grain prices somewhat to start the week. 
   # Export inspections were good for soybeans again, 79.4 mln. bu., but generally poor for corn, 14.7 mln. and wheat, 10.3 mln. bu.  The corn did find some positives from the 1.44 mmt. that was sold to Mexico.  180,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China, helping stem the negative attitudes from the poor sales number a couple of weeks ago.
   # Crush data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), 158.9 mln. bu. for October was as good as hoped for, but wasn’t a surprise.  The soyoil inventories were up slightly, but stocks didn’t grow much given the increase in output this month.
   # The weekly crop ratings are winding down in importance.  Corn harvest was reported 96% complete, ending this year’s weekly stream of data for corn.  Winter wheat planting is now 94% done.  The good/excellent rating was unchanged at 52%, but still under last year’s 60%.  These reports will end in 2 weeks, with the trade then only having monthly reports from selected states.
   # The weekly CFTC reports indicated the hedge funds expanded their short positions in wheat, corn, and soybeans.  They appear relatively well balanced on their short/long position in soybean products.
   # This week’s Midwestern weather system will relieve some of the worry about the general drying of soils over the last number of weeks.  Some rain has occurred in parts of Russia, but condition of the Black Sea winter crop remains generally poor.  Argentine and southern Brazilian weather remains generally good, but the center/west will be mostly warm, dry this week.  Eastern states should be less hot.  And S. African weather remains poor, dragging their corn production potential down.
   # Technical factors came into play guiding stocks to a recovery of some of last week’s losses.  Growing expectations of a Fed rate hike kept the Dollar firm as well.  The one change may have been interest in owning gold in the wake of the Paris attack.

***** Live cattle were mostly down the $3.00 limit, feeders were $2.77-$4.47 lower, with lean hogs $3.00-$2.20 lower.  ***** 

   # Weak wholesale prices, negative near term expectations for cattle prices, and the premium of futures over cash pulled cattle futures sharply lower Monday.  
   # Lean hog futures followed cattle lower, although a more active wholesale market with slightly higher prices kept futures from following cattle’s limit break other than the soon to expire December contract.