Morning MarketWatch: Another quiet overnight trade for grains

Tuesday, November 17, 2015
***** Corn futures up a penny ahead of the morning break; soybeans up 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cent; Chicago wheat down 2 to 3 cents.​ *****

   # It’s quiet again for the grains.  A lack of follow-through from the short sellers is noted, as is the little amount of interest from buyers.  Fresh news is limited.
   # Monday’s Crop Progress report pegged the nation’s corn harvest at 96 percent complete.  The remaining portion of the crop yet to be crop is in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.       
   # The U.S. winter wheat crop is benefitting from the moisture accumulated in recent weeks.  USDA scouts call the crop 52 percent good or excellent, up one point from the previous week.    
   # One to two inches of rain fell over a broad swath of both the Plains and Midwest regions in past 24 hours.  More is on the way today and tomorrow.  Temperatures forecasts are suddenly shifting colder for the back half of November.         
   # The presidential runoff election in Argentina will take place on Sunday.  Both candidates have promised an immediate cut to grain export taxes.  Some analysts are suggesting this development will significantly price negative as Argentine farmers become encouraged to move large soybean inventories to market.                            
   # A report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed fund traders shifting toward a net-short corn positions.  Managed money is now net-short approximately 50,000 contracts each for both corn and soybeans while remaining bearish by about 20,000 wheat.
   # The charts lean bearish for the grains, but futures are holding on to various levels of support for now.  Buyers look willing to step in as nearby corn futures approach $3.50.  The report day low at $8.50 stands for January beans.      
   # U.S. stock markets look poised for a firmer start with the help of stronger international indexes.  Dollar index futures inch higher after notching in a new seven month high against the euro on Monday.  Energies slump lower after a strong rally to start the week.  Gold is down $5.

***** Bears likely to put pressure on cattle at the start; opening direction also biased lower for hogs after futures record fresh contract lows on Monday. ***** 

   # A new gap was opened on Monday when cattle futures started the session with limit losses.  Cash markets were quiet with very few bids present last week.  Smaller showlists could help this week, as could a steady start for the wholesale trade.  
   # High hog slaughters have left pork supplies to swell at a time when demand is turning softer.  The market won’t find much help in the near-term as consumers start shopping for turkey this week and beef in December.