AgriVisor Morning MarkeWatch

Thursday, November 19, 2015
***** Corn futures firmer by 1 1/2 leading up to the break; soybeans down 2 1/4; Chicago wheat up 3 to 4 cents. *****

   # Corn and wheat futures were a touch higher ahead of the weekly export sales report with soybeans down moderately.  Soybean sales beat expectations and tallied a very strong 66 million bushels.  Corn sales were solid at 30.6 million bushels while wheat sales were good for a change at 26.5 million.  Prices firmed up all around after the report was released.      
   # The bears are likely to move past today’s export report quickly and point to a lack of daily sales reported this week.           
   # Australian meteorologists expect that El Nino will remain strong through the early part of 2016 but that ocean temperatures should peak before the end of the current year.  There is still some speculation that conditions could become ripe for a shift toward La Nina.        
   # A weaker dollar lends some support to commodities overnight.  While yesterday’s Fed minutes indicated a strong change of interest rates moving up in December, many traders suggest that the rate hike is already well priced into the currency market.            # Analysts suggest that Argentine farmers could be quick to unload grain stores after Sunday’s presidential runoff election.  Both candidates have promised to make an immediate cut to grain export taxes.  
   # Chicago wheat futures are trying hold support from $4.80, a level that has propped the board up many times over in 2015.  Despite large old-crop inventories held in the U.S., production worries abroad help support the market.    
   # Soybean futures are consolidating on the lows made on report day, August 10th.  The report day high at $8.68 1/2 stands as resistance for the nearby January contract.  A retracement target sits above the market at $8.78.  
   # An unemployment number declined by slightly less than expected.  Initial jobless claims were down to 271,000 on the week.   

***** Cattle futures look to find guidance from the bid/offer structure that will better develop in the cash market today; hogs futures to find direction from the wholesale market. ***** 

   # Cattle on Feed numbers will be reported Friday.  Analysts expect the total on-feed count to be 102.2 percent of the year-ago total.  Expectations call for placements at 95.9 percent and marketings at 96.2 percent.        
   # Hog slaughters are lower on the week, but expectations are for numbers to pick up into the end of the year.  The outlook is positive for demand, but pork stocks are abundant.  Looks to be a choppy trade through the rest of 2015.