AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, November 20, 2015
***** Grains end Friday fractionally lower; soybeans drop 2 1/2 cents on the day; Chicago wheat finishes weaker by 2 1/4. ***** 

   # “Quiet market” is an understatement for this week’s grain trade.  Low to moderate volume changed hands as futures ranges held narrow.  Corn managed to close higher by a nickel on the week, soybeans gained 1 1/2, and Chicago wheat dropped 7 1/4 over the five sessions.  
   # Fresh news was rather limited on the week.  Focuses are shifting from size of U.S. harvest toward prospects for its usage.  Various weather headlines were given some attention.  
   # Improving soil conditions in the U.S. Plains were a negative for wheat prices this week.  Drought worries for wheat growers in Russia/Ukraine still linger.  Wildfires in Western Australia threaten to burn up at least 4 percent of the state’s wheat crop.      
   # Another 120,000 metric tons of soybeans scrolled through the USDA’s daily export sales system.  The soy market found some notable support from strong tallies on this week’s sales report.  
   # Traders await the results of this weekend’s presidential runoff election in Argentina. Both candidates promise a grain export tax cut, but the poll leader Mauricio Macri is thought to be most friendly to the ag sector.     
   # A snow system is moving across northern parts of the Corn Belt at week’s end/the weekend, heavier in the west than the east.  Some precip will come to Central/Southern Plains next week.  Temps are expected to be generally mild.  
   # It was an ‘inside week’ for corn futures as the December contract was able to hold up above the $3.56 low notched in on report day, November 10th.  That session’s $3.67 3/4 high will serve as resistance.    
   # A strong dollar helped pressure grains at the week’s end.  European central bankers indicated that further monetary accommodation may be needed to combat low inflation.  

***** Live cattle trade both sides of unchanged before futures finished fractionally weaker; feeders gain $0.60 to $0.90; hogs climb $1 to $2.22.  ***** 

   # Cattle on Feed numbers came in mostly as expected.  Total on-feed tallied 102 percent of the year-ago figure.  Marketing were a touch higher than anticipated at 97 percent but placements were fully anticipated at 96 percent.  
   # Hogs were able to rally as cash markets held steady and cutout values made gains.  February hogs hurdled a first level of resistance from last week’s high but stopped short of their 20-day moving average.