AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, November 20, 2015
***** Corn futures fractionally weaker; Chicago wheat fractionally firmer; soybeans down a nickel ahead of the break. *****

   # Grains will close off a quiet week.  Futures come into Friday with corn up a nickel and soybeans steady over the past four sessions.  Thanksgiving next Thursday will bring a short week.  Markets close on Thursday and trade until noon on Friday.         
   # Traders were talking about the Monsanto earnings call on Thursday, within which company executives stated they still see corn prices reaching $4.50 in 8 to 10 months.    # Soybean exports are catching up to pace after a strong week of sales.  Still, total commitments are about 17 percent behind sales accumulated by this time last year.  The USDA’s goal for the marketing year is only 7 percent lower than the 2014 total.   
   # After wet weather was problem for wheat quality in Eastern Australia, wildfires are now an issue in the country’s western regions.  Early estimates have nearly 4 percent of wheat in area threatened.                 
   # Egyptian officials have announced a cut to subsidies for local wheat growers.  The world’s top importer will likely look to make even larger purchases in the world trade market next year.  
   # Soybean futures are consolidating on fresh lows made last week.  $8.50 still holds as key support for the most-active January contract.  The report day high at $8.68 1/2 serves as resistance.      
   # Oil prices remain on the defensive after this week’s stocks report showed inventories reaching a new record level.  WTI crude is bouncing around important psychological support at $40.  
   # The dollar index rallies overnight as Europe signals more monetary accommodation to come.  U.S. equity index futures are up on limited news.       

***** Cattle futures look to find guidance from a cash market that should better develop today; hog futures to find direction from the wholesale market. ***** 

   # Cattle on Feed numbers will be reported after the close.  Analysts expect the total on-feed count to be 102.2 percent of the year-ago total.  Expectations call for placements at 95.9 percent and marketings at 96.2 percent.        
   # Hog futures are working to move up out of oversold territory on the charts but are struggling just to clear the 10-day moving average.  Slaughters have come down this week and product is moving quickly, but pork inventories remain high.