AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, November 23, 2015
***** Corn futures gain 2 3/4 to 4 cents; soybeans tack on 6; Chicago wheat up 6 1/2 to 10 1/4. ***** 

   # Soybeans made fresh contract lows overnight before erasing losses and tacking on a nickel’s worth of gains by the end of Monday’s session.    
   # Initially negative was the election of Mauricio Macri in the weekend’s presidential runoff in Argentina.  Macri promises to cut grain export taxes, so traders had feared his election would trigger active farmer selling from growers there.  
   # Soybeans bottomed out at $8.44 1/4 before reversing higher to put together a bullish outside day on the charts.  The bears did not show any substantial follow through after new lows were reached, which is a technically positive sign.  
   # Crop Progress estimates were reported after the closing bell.  The weekly no longer includes a corn harvest estimate.  Winter wheat conditions improved a point to 53 percent good or excellent compared to 58 percent of last year’s crop that was given good or excellent ratings.  
   # Dollar index futures gained on the day and at one point were trading above 100.  The euro continues to move toward parity.  Market participants still wait to see whether or not U.S. interest rates will be raised by the Fed in December.   
   # Fund traders were seen covering shorts to start the week.  The large speculators had added to bearish corn and wheat bets in the last reporting week.  As of last Tuesday, funds were net-short 85,000 contracts of corn, 51,000 contracts, and 41,000 wheat.  
   # The International Grains Council looks for further yield gains in China this year.  Corn production is expected to decline only marginally despite a cut to planted acres.  
   # U.S. stock markets were down just fractionally with limited news to start the week.  Bond prices were higher on the day as traders price in an expected rate increase.  Metals were broadly lower with copper making new lows.  Energies were a touch higher after comments on production from Saudi Arabia threw some volatility into the mix.    

***** Live cattle finish $0.17 to $1.22 higher; feeders gain $0.10 to $0.85; hogs drop $0.07 to $0.62.  ***** 

   # Some early week cash sales gave cattle traders some guidance on Monday.  Some animals changed hands in Nebraska at $125, or $2 lower on the week.  Bids are firmer in other markets.  Wholesale prices were steady.  
   # Hogs finished with moderate losses as the most-active February futures contract ran into technical resistance from its 20-day moving average.  The carcass cutout average dropped $0.40 but still holds above $70.