Agrivisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, November 30, 2015
***** Corn futures ended 5-6 higher, soybeans 6-8 higher, with Chicago wheat 6 lower to steady. ***** 

   # End-of-month short covering lifted corn and soybean futures.  Weather and world markets kept wheat on the defensive.
   # Weekly soybean export inspections, 67.4 mln. bu., reinforced the positive demand news.  The 11.8 mln. bu. corn inspections were a little negative, but somewhat overcome by Friday’s good sales number.  Wheat inspections remain slow with only 10.1 mln. bu. inspected last week.  
   # Our FOB prices for corn are said to currently be the lowest in the world which should boost business.  Our wheat remains higher than other origins, evidenced by the ability of France to sell wheat to Mexico the last few days. The trade is watching the Turkey/Russian dispute as Turkey has sourced most of their wheat from Russia the last few years.
   # The trade is still sorting through implications of changes to the Argentine export changes.  The soybean tax will be cut 5% to 30%.  Corn and wheat taxes may be eliminated along with export quotas.  If enacted, the trade expects acreage to be shifted away from soybeans to corn/wheat, although changes for the current crop may be limited.
   # Argentine plantings are said to be 43% done for soybeans and 39% for corn.  Brazilian soybean plantings are said to be 78-81% complete. 
   #   Rain/snow in the Black Sea region has improved moisture, but has come too late to improve the crop condition much before dormancy.  Weather remains good for Argentina and southern Brazil, with showers keeping moisture levels good.  The center/west and northeastern Brazilian states are having showers, but not enough to ease early crop concerns much yet.  Asian rust cases are building fast in southern Brazil, dictating many treatments this year.
   # The last winter wheat rating for the season raised the good/excellent number another 2 points to 55%. It’s still slightly under last year and average. 
   # Late in the day EPA released their final renewable fuels targets.  They were slightly higher than the numbers proposed in May, but still below the original goals laid out in 2007.  The 2014 and 2015 targets were closed to what was produced.  The 2016 target is higher, with the ethanol target at 14.5 bln. gals, only slightly higher than this year’s 14.05 bl.  Advanced biofuels were increased the most, with the biodiesel requirement at 1.9 bln. gals. In 2016 and 2.0 bln. in 2017. 
   # The Dollar was slightly higher to start the week, with traders still looking for the Fed to raise rates in Dec.  There was renewed talk the ECB might further stimulate Eurozone monetary policy when they meet in December.

***** Live cattle ended $1.77-$1.50 lower, feeders $3.27-$2.75 lower, and lean hogs $0.87 lower to $0.85 higher. ***** 

   # Wholesale beef prices ended mixed, with choice cuts higher.  The volume was tepid, but it’s the Monday after a holiday.  The cash cattle trade was lacking with virtually no bids showing.  Feedlots were thought to be willing to sell cattle at $132.
   # Wholesale pork prices were mostly a little stronger on moderate volume.  Packers were buying hogs at slightly higher prices, needing animals to slaughter later this week.